With Charles Leclerc's crash in the final stages of Q3, the red flag froze the grid positions and robbed many drivers of a chance to set one final flying lap. While Perez was able to set a very respectable 1:26.841 to put his RB19 on provisional pole in the early stages of Q3, Verstappen aborted his first flying lap after an unforced error cost him significant time, resulting in a starting position of P9. A particularly frustrating result for Verstappen, given his Q2 time of 1:26.814 - faster than the final pole position time Perez locked in.
Despite his unforced error in qualifying, Verstappen demonstrated his pace advantage over Perez, both in practice and with his Q2 flying lap. This set the foundations for an intriguing battle in the Grand Prix, with Perez holding the track position advantage, and the expectation of Verstappen's overall pace advantage, the question remained:
Is Verstappen's pace advantage significant enough to overcome this starting position deficit?
In short, yes. Max was able to take P1 by over 5 seconds to Perez in P2. But what made the difference?
While Perez started on the Medium compound tyre, Verstappen started on the Hards. The expectation here was that Perez could maximise the pace advantage of the faster tyre compound while being in clear air in P1 from the start. In contrast, with Verstappen starting in P9 the intention was to use the hard tyre to run a long first stint, breaking free of traffic as soon as possible and running suitable pace in clear air so as to not drop back into traffic after the mandatory pit stop.
What was the pace difference between Verstappen and Perez for each tyre compound, and how does the order of these stints effect pace?
Looking at the box plot comparison for the hard tyre stint of each driver, we can see Perez punched in faster laps on average. Given this information, and the knowledge that the hard tyre is used for a greater portion of the race than the medium compound, it may be expected for Sergio to have won. However, when given the context of the full race it becomes clear that this is where Verstappen set himself up for victory. Using these hard tyres from the start of the race, at maximum fuel-load (weight), he was able to overtake the 7 cars between himself and Perez, then continue on the same tyres with good pace until the end of lap 45 when making his mandatory pit stop. This contrast of situations throughout Verstappen's hard tyre stint justifies the field spread in his laptime data. Perez, however, when running the hard tyre from lap 21 to the finish line on lap 57, running exclusively in clear air with no overtakes required, and starting the stint on less fuel than Verstappen's hard stint, given the initial 20 laps fuel usage, was unable to produce laptimes quick enough to defend his tyre strategy against Verstappen. The time loss to Verstappen wasn't all due to the hard tyre stint however.
When examining the equivalent box plot for both drivers' medium tyre stint, it is clear to see Verstappen's superior pace. This is due to the use of this compound at opposite stages of the Grand Prix. Starting on the medium tyre, Perez's car, carrying a full race fuel-load, would be significantly heavier and therefore slower than Verstappen's car running the medium tyre towards the end of the race.
It can be concluded therefore, that while ultimately Verstappen took the net lead of the race on lap 48 using the medium tyre compound, it was his consistency and pace in the second half of his hard tyre stint, while running in clear air, that facilitated this overtaking opportunity. In addition, Verstappen's ability to minimise time loss to Perez during the opening stage of the Grand Prix, ensured he was within suitable overtaking range towards the latter stages of the race. This is further evident from the trace of the time delta between Perez and Verstappen.
Showing the time difference from Perez to Verstappen, and upward trend in the line demonstrates Verstappen catching up to, or pulling away from Perez, while the opposite trajectory describes Perez achieving the same. In theory, Perez would have been able to pull away in the early stage of the Grand Prix, utilising clear air in P1 and the pace of the medium tyre. The opposite is seen to be true, with the time delta between Max and Sergio closing up until Perez entered the pits on lap 20. It can therefore be speculated that the tyre did not behave and degrade in the expected manner for Perez, and as a result, this first stint of his race was unsuccessful. To recover from this, Perez would have to utilise the fresh hard tyres to close the gap to Verstappen, now in the lead after Sergio's pit stop. Perez was able to begin recovering from his unsuccessful first stint, and was closing the gap to Verstappen until lap 30, before settling into a stalemate for a further 8 laps, where a ~15 second gap was maintained. On lap 38, Perez dropped back by ~1 second, and subsequently was unable to match Verstappen's lap times. The upward trend from lap 38 to 44 showing clearly that Verstappen was once again able to pull away from Perez, a vital stage of the Grand Prix before Max's pit stop onto the medium tyres. Following the pit stop, Verstappen was less than a second behind Perez at the end of lap 46, running fresh medium tyres he was able to take the lead on lap 48, before comfortably building the ~5 second advantage he would hold across the finish line.
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The RB19 features a highly potent DRS system, facilitating overtakes with a higher top speed in the DRS zones, even when compared to other cars with DRS enabled. This advantage enabled Verstappen to break through the traffic quickly and efficiently, minimising time loss to Perez in the opening stage of the Grand Prix.
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The Miami Grand Prix track allows overtaking with relative ease, in contrast to other tracks. This means that gaining track position can be achieved via on-track overtaking as well as effective tyre strategy. Crucial for Verstappen in this race, starting from P9.
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Tyre management. Max Verstappen was able to manage the hard tyres such that his pace kept him in range of Perez, while still extending the stint in order to pit for fresh mediums for the final 10 laps of the race. Perez struggle to manage the medium tyres with suitable pace for the first 20 laps of the Grad Prix.
- An early safety car or virtual safety car. A safety car or VSC between laps 15 and 20 would have allowed Perez and all other cars starting on the medium tyre to complete their pit strategy with minimal time loss. Whereas Verstappen, starting on the hard tyre, would be unable to pit for mediums and run to the end with suitable pace.