bayes-vis.bib

@article{berrocal2010spatio,
  title = {A spatio-temporal downscaler for output from numerical models},
  author = {Berrocal, Veronica J and Gelfand, Alan E and Holland, David M},
  journal = {Journal of agricultural, biological, and environmental statistics},
  volume = {15},
  number = {2},
  pages = {176--197},
  year = {2010},
  publisher = {Springer}
}
@article{forouzanfar2015global,
  title = {
    Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79
    behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or
    clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990--2013: a systematic analysis
    for the {Global Burden of Disease Study 2013}
  },
  author = {
    Forouzanfar, Mohammad H and Alexander, Lily and
    Anderson, H Ross and Bachman, Victoria F and Biryukov, Stan and
    Brauer, Michael and Burnett, Richard and Casey, Daniel and
    Coates, Matthew M and Cohen, Aaron and others
  },
  journal = {The Lancet},
  volume = {386},
  number = {10010},
  pages = {2287--2323},
  year = {2015},
  publisher = {Elsevier}
}
@article{shaddick2017data,
  title = {
    Data integration model for air quality: a hierarchical approach to the
    global estimation of exposures to ambient air pollution
  },
  author = {
    Shaddick, Gavin and Thomas, Matthew L and Green, Amelia and
    Brauer, Michael and Donkelaar, Aaron and Burnett, Rick and
    Chang, Howard H and Cohen, Aaron and Dingenen, Rita Van and
    Dora, Carlos and others
  },
  journal = {Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics)},
  year = {2017},
  volume = {Available online 13 June 2017},
  publisher = {Wiley Online Library},
  note = {arXiv:1609.00141}
}

@article{betancourt2017conceptual,
  title={A conceptual introduction to {Hamiltonian Monte Carlo}},
  author = {Michael Betancourt},
  note = {arXiv preprint arxiv:1701.02434},
  year = {2017}
}
@InCollection{betancourt2015,
  title = {{Hamiltonian Monte Carlo} for hierarchical models},
  author = {Betancourt, Michael and Girolami, Mark},
  booktitle = {Current Trends in {Bayesian} Methodology with Applications},
  editor = {Satyanshu K. Upadhyay and Umesh Singh and Dipak K. Dey and Appaia Loganathan},
  publisher = {Chapman \& Hall},
  year = {2015},
  pages = {79--101},
  note = {arXiv:1312.0906}
}
@book{gelman2013bda,
  author = {
    Andrew Gelman and John B. Carlin and Hal S. Stern and David B. Dunson and
    Aki Vehtari and Donald B. Rubin
  },
  title = {Bayesian Data Analysis},
  edition = {Third},
  publisher = {Chapman \& Hall/CRC},
  year = {2013},
  note = {Chapter 6, Section ``Marginal predictive checks".}
}
@InProceedings{GelfandDeyChang1992,
  author = {Alan E. Gelfand and D. K. Dey and H. Chang},
  title = {
    Model Determination using Predictive Distributions
    with Implementation via Sampling-Based Methods
    (with discussion)
  },
  booktitle = {Bayesian Statistics 4},
  pages = {147--167},
  year  = {1992},
  editor = {J. M. Bernardo and J. O. Berger and A. P. Dawid and A. F. M. Smith},
  publisher = {Oxford University Press}
}
@InCollection{Gelfand1996,
  author = {Alan E. Gelfand},
  title = {Model determination using sampling-based methods},
  booktitle = {Markov Chain {Monte Carlo} in Practice},
  editor = {W. R. Gilks and S. Richardson and D. J. Spiegelhalter},
  publisher = {Chapman \& Hall},
  year = {1996},
  pages = {145--162}
}
@article{gelman2004exploratory,
  title = {Exploratory Data Analysis for Complex Models},
  author = {Andrew Gelman},
  journal = {Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics},
  volume = {13},
  number = {4},
  pages = {755-779},
  year = {2004}
}
@article{gelman2006priors,
  author = {Andrew Gelman},
  title = {
    Prior distributions for variance parameters in hierarchical models
    (comment on article by {Browne} and {Draper})
  },
  journal = {Bayesian analysis},
  number = {3},
  pages = {515--534},
  volume = {1},
  year = {2006}
}
@article{gelman2014statistical,
  title = {
    The Statistical Crisis in Science:
    Data-dependent analysis-a ``garden of forking paths"-explains why many
    statistically significant comparisons don't hold up.
  },
  author = {Gelman, Andrew and Loken, Eric},
  journal = {American Scientist},
  volume = {102},
  number = {6},
  pages = {460},
  year = {2014}
}
@article{gelman2014understanding,
  title = {Understanding predictive information criteria for {Bayesian} models},
  author = {Gelman, Andrew and Hwang, Jessica and Vehtari, Aki},
  journal = {Statistics and Computing},
  volume = {24},
  number = {6},
  pages = {997--1016},
  year = {2014},
  publisher = {Springer},
  note = {arXiv:1307.5928}
}
@article{gelman2017priors,
  title = {The prior can generally only be understood in the context of the likelihood},
  author = {Gelman, Andrew and Simpson, Daniel and Betancourt, Michael},
  journal = {arXiv preprint arXiv:1708.07487},
  year = {2017}
}
@article{rubin1981,
  author = {Rubin, D. B.},
  year = {1981},
  title = {Estimation in parallel randomized experiments} ,
  journal = {Journal of Educational Statistics},
  volume = {6},
  pages = {377--401}
}
@article{vehtari2016psis,
  title = {Pareto smoothed importance sampling},
  author = {Vehtari, Aki and Gelman, Andrew and Gabry, Jonah},
  note = {arXiv preprint arXiv:1507.02646},
  year = {2017}
}
@article{vehtari2017practical,
  title = {Practical {Bayesian} model evaluation using leave-one-out cross-validation and {WAIC}},
  author = {Vehtari, Aki and Gelman, Andrew and Gabry, Jonah},
  journal = {Statistics and Computing},
  year = {2017},
  volume = {27},
  number = {5},
  pages = {1413--1432},
  note = {arXiv:1507.04544}
}


%: Software
@misc{rstan,
  title = {{RStan}: the {R} interface to {S}tan, Version 2.16.1},
  author = {{Stan Development Team}},
  year = {2017},
  note = {\url{http://mc-stan.org}}
}
@misc{stan,
  title = {The {S}tan {C++} Library, Version 2.16.0},
  author = {{Stan Development Team}},
  year = {2017},
  url = {\url{http://mc-stan.org}}
}
@manual{stanmanual,
  title = {Stan Modeling Language User's Guide and Reference Manual, Version 2.16.0},
  author = {{Stan Development Team}},
  year = {2017},
  note = {\url{http://mc-stan.org}}
}
@misc{looRpackage,
  title = {loo: {E}fficient leave-one-out cross-validation and {WAIC} for {B}ayesian models},
  author = {Vehtari, Aki and Gelman, Andrew and Gabry, Jonah},
  year = {2017},
  note = {{R} package version 1.0.0, \url{http://mc-stan.org/loo}}
}
@misc{bayesplotRpackage,
  title = {bayesplot: Plotting for {Bayesian} models},
  author = {Jonah Gabry},
  year = {2017},
  note = {{R} package version 1.3.0, \url{http://mc-stan.org/bayesplot}}
}
@Manual{rcore,
  title = {{R}: {A} Language and Environment for Statistical Computing},
  author = {{R Core Team}},
  organization = {R Foundation for Statistical Computing},
  address = {Vienna, Austria},
  year = {2017},
  url = {\url{https://www.R-project.org}}
 }
@Book{ggplot2Rpackage,
  title = {ggplot2: {E}legant Graphics for Data Analysis},
  author = {Hadley Wickham},
  publisher = {Springer-Verlag New York},
  year = {2009},
  isbn = {978-0-387-98140-6},
  url = {\url{http://ggplot2.org}}
}


@article{yao2018yes,
  title={Yes, but Did It Work?: Evaluating Variational Inference},
  author={Yao, Yuling and Vehtari, Aki and Simpson, Daniel and Gelman, Andrew},
  journal={arXiv preprint arXiv:1802.02538},
  year={2018}
}

@article{simpson2017penalising,
  title={Penalising model component complexity: A principled, practical approach to constructing priors},
  author={Simpson, Daniel and Rue, H{\aa}vard and Riebler, Andrea and Martins, Thiago G and S{\o}rbye, Sigrunn H and others},
  journal={Statistical science},
  volume={32},
  number={1},
  pages={1--28},
  year={2017},
  publisher={Institute of Mathematical Statistics}
}

@article{gelman2008weakly,
  title={A weakly informative default prior distribution for logistic and other regression models},
  author={Gelman, Andrew and Jakulin, Aleks and Pittau, Maria Grazia and Su, Yu-Sung and others},
  journal={The Annals of Applied Statistics},
  volume={2},
  number={4},
  pages={1360--1383},
  year={2008},
  publisher={Institute of Mathematical Statistics}
}
@article{buja2009statistical,
  title={Statistical inference for exploratory data analysis and model diagnostics},
  author={Buja, Andreas and Cook, Dianne and Hofmann, Heike and Lawrence, Michael and Lee, Eun-Kyung and Swayne, Deborah F and Wickham, Hadley},
  journal={Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences},
  volume={367},
  number={1906},
  pages={4361--4383},
  year={2009},
  publisher={The Royal Society}
}