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<!DOCTYPE html>
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<title>What can a technologist do about climate change? A personal view.</title>
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<div>People say “this is a Manhattan Project, this an Apollo Project”. Sorry, those are science projects. Fusion is a Manhattan Project or an Apollo Project... The rest of this is more like <b>retooling for World War II</b>, except with everyone playing on the same team.</div>
<div class="who">— Saul Griffith, on converting the world to clean energy</div>
<div class="two">This has not been a scientist’s war; it has been a war in which all have had a part.</div>
<div class="who2">— Vannevar Bush, on World War II</div>
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<h1>What can a technologist do about climate change?</h1>
<div class="subtitle">(A personal view)</div>
<div class="byline"><a href="http://worrydream.com/">Bret Victor</a> / November 2015</div>
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<p>This started with a tweet. I’m embarrassed how often that happens.</p>
<p>Frustrated by a sense of <a href="http://www.vox.com/2015/8/10/9124145/effective-altruism-global-ai">global mispriorities</a>, I blurted out some snarky and mildly regrettable <a href="https://twitter.com/worrydream/status/631361688931991552">tweets</a> on the lack of attention to climate change in the tech industry (Twitter being a sublime medium for the snarky and regrettable). Climate change is the problem of our time, it’s everyone’s problem, and most of our problem-solvers are assuming that someone else will solve it.</p>
<p>I’m grateful to one problem-solver, who wrote to ask for specifics —</p>
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<div>Bret Victor @worrydream - Aug 11<br>Worrying about sentient AI as the ice caps melt is like standing on the tracks as the train rushes in, worrying about being hit by lightning</div>
<div>Bret Victor @worrydream - Aug 12<br>If any "founders" out there want to "disrupt" our 401 ppm atmospheric CO2, or "moonshot" ocean acidification, that would be cool</div>
<div>Bret Victor @worrydream - Aug 12<br>"minimum viable planet"</div>
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<div class="big-quote">“How do you think the tech community (startup community, or any community) can contribute to tech and/or policy solutions on a global scale?”</div>
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<p>The notes below are my attempt to answer that question.</p>
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<p>This is a “personal view”, biased by my experiences and idiosyncrasies. I’ve followed the climate situation for some time, including working on Al Gore’s book <a href="http://pushpoppress.com/ourchoice/">Our Choice</a>, but I can’t hope to convey the full picture — just a sliver that’s visible from where I’m standing. I urge you to talk to many scientists and engineers involved in climate analysis and energy, and see for yourself what the needs are and how you can contribute.</p>
<p>This is aimed at people in the tech industry, and is more about what you can do with your career than at a hackathon. I’m not going to discuss policy and regulation, although they’re no less important than technological innovation. A good way to think about it, via Saul Griffith, is that <i>it’s the role of technologists to create options for policy-makers.</i></p>
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<div class="figure-caption" style="margin-bottom:4px;">everything that needs to be done about climate change</div>
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<div class="figure-caption" style="margin-top:16px;margin-bottom:4px;">what you’ll read about here</div>
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<p>I’m also only going to directly discuss technology related to the <i>primary cause</i> of climate change (the burning of fossil fuels), although there are technological needs related to other causes (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change_and_agriculture#Livestock">livestock</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deforestation_and_climate_change">deforestation</a>, <a href="http://www.ted.com/talks/hans_rosling_on_global_population_growth#t-301019">global poverty</a>), as well as mitigating <i>symptoms</i> of climate change (<a href="http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/apr/27/extreme-weather-already-on-increase-due-to-climate-change-study-finds">droughts and storms</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change_and_ecosystems">ecosystem damage</a>, <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/aug/18/mass-migration-crisis-refugees-climate-change">mass migrations</a>).</p>
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<a class="toc-chapter-name" href="#funding">Funding</a>
<a class="toc-section-name" href="#funding-public">Public investment</a>
<a class="toc-section-name" href="#funding-private">Private investment</a>
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<a class="toc-chapter-name" href="#production">Producing Energy</a>
<a class="toc-section-name" href="#production-stuff">The stuff around the thing</a>
<a class="toc-section-name" href="#production-computation">Computation</a>
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<a class="toc-chapter-name" href="#moving">Moving Energy</a>
<a class="toc-section-name" href="#moving-networking">Networking<br><span>(moving in space)</span></a>
<a class="toc-section-name" href="#moving-storage">Storage<br><span>(moving in time)</span></a>
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<a class="toc-chapter-name" href="#consumption">Consuming Energy</a>
<a class="toc-section-name" href="#consumption-transportation">Transportation<br><span>(consuming what?)</span></a>
<a class="toc-section-name" href="#consumption-coordination">Coordination<br><span>(consuming when?)</span></a>
<a class="toc-section-name" href="#consumption-efficiency">Efficiency<br><span>(consuming how much?)</span></a>
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<a class="toc-chapter-name" href="#tools">Tools for Scientists & Engineers</a>
<a class="toc-section-name" href="#tools-technical">Technical computing</a>
<a class="toc-section-name" href="#tools-modeling">Tools for modeling physical systems</a>
<a class="toc-section-name" href="#tools-controlling">Tools for controlling physical systems</a>
<a class="toc-section-name" href="#tools-finding">Tools for problem-finding</a>
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<a class="toc-chapter-name" href="#media">Media for Understanding Situations</a>
<a class="toc-section-name" href="#media-debate">Model-driven debate</a>
<a class="toc-section-name" href="#media-reading">Model-driven reading</a>
<a class="toc-section-name" href="#media-writing">Model-driven authoring</a>
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<a class="toc-chapter-name" href="#coda">Also this</a>
<a class="toc-section-name" href="#coda-other">Other technology</a>
<a class="toc-section-name" href="#coda-morale">Morale</a>
<a class="toc-section-name" href="#coda-see">The world is not what you see</a>
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<h2>Funding</h2>
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<p>I won’t say much about this, but I can’t leave it out. Available funding sources, and the interests and attitudes of the funders, have always had an enormous effect on what technology comes to exist in the world. In a time of crisis, it’s the responsibility of those holding the capital to sponsor work on averting the crisis. That is not happening.</p>
<h3 id="funding-public"><a href="#funding-public">Public investment</a></h3>
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<div class="public-structure-caption" style="left:0px;width:142px;">The primary source of public funding in the U.S. for “I’ve got a crazy new idea for energy” is <a href="http://arpa-e.energy.gov">ARPA-E</a>. Last year it granted <a href="http://arpa-e.energy.gov/sites/default/files/ARPA-E%202016%20Budget.pdf">$280 million</a>.</div>
<div class="public-structure-caption" style="left:172px;width:191px;">Incremental innovation is supported by the <a href="http://energy.gov">DOE</a>’s <a href="http://energy.gov/eere/office-energy-efficiency-renewable-energy">Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy</a>, which has a <a href="http://www5.eere.energy.gov/office_eere/program_budget_formulation.php">$2 billion</a> annual budget for a wide range of initiatives.</div>
<div class="public-structure-caption" style="left:385px;width:126px;">The <a href="http://energy.gov">DOE</a> also funds the <a href="http://energy.gov/national-labs">national labs</a>, which do a lot of energy research.</div>
<div class="public-structure-caption" style="left:596px;width:161px;">The <a href="http://www.nsf.gov">NSF</a>’s <a href="http://www.nsf.gov/funding/pgm_summ.jsp?pims_id=501026">Energy for Sustainability</a> program gives out <a href="http://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/advancedSearchResult?WT.si_n=ClickedAbstractsRecentAwards&WT.si_x=1&WT.si_cs=1&WT.z_pims_id=501026&ProgEleCode=7644&BooleanElement=Any&BooleanRef=Any&ActiveAwards=true">$18 million</a> annually for academic research.</div>
<div class="public-structure-caption" style="left:772px;width:173px;">Public funding can also be found at the state level, such as the <a href="http://www.energy.ca.gov">California Energy Commission</a>’s <a href="http://www.energy.ca.gov/contracts/epic.html">EPIC</a> program, which has a <a href="http://www.energy.ca.gov/2014publications/CEC-500-2014-038/CEC-500-2014-038-CMF.pdf">$130 million</a> annual budget.</div>
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<p>Possibly the largest source of public funding is in the form of <a href="http://energy.gov/eere/slsc/downloads/guide-federal-financing-energy-efficiency-and-clean-energy-deployment">financing programs</a>, such as <a href="http://energy.gov/lpo/about-us-home">loan guarantees</a> and <a href="http://energy.gov/savings/renewable-electricity-production-tax-credit-ptc">tax credits</a>.</p>
<blockquote>
[The U.S. energy loan program] literally kick-started the whole utility-scale photovoltaic industry... The program funded the first of five huge solar projects in the West... Before that, developers couldn’t get money from private lenders. But now, with proven business models, they can. <span class="cite"><a href="http://www.npr.org/2014/11/13/363572151/after-solyndra-loss-u-s-energy-loan-program-turning-a-profit">(source)</a></span></blockquote>
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<p>It’s great that this funding exists, but let’s be clear — it’s a pittance. If we take Saul Griffith’s quote at face value and accept that addressing climate change will take a concerted global effort comparable to World War II, consider that the U.S. spent about <a href="http://cironline.org/sites/default/files/legacy/files/June2010CRScostofuswars.pdf">$4 trillion</a> in today’s dollars to “fight the enemy” at that time. Our present enemy is more threatening, and our financial commitment to the fight is several orders of magnitude off.</p>
<blockquote><span class="author">(Naomi Klein)</span> There is... no scenario in which we can avoid wartime levels of spending in the public sector — not if we are serious about preventing catastrophic levels of warming, and minimizing the destructive potential of the coming storms. <span class="cite"><a href="http://bit.ly/1ZJtgdb">(source)</a></span>
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<p>In the meantime, the fossil fuel industry is being subsidized at about <a href="http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/resources/energysubsidies/">half a trillion dollars a year</a>.</p>
<p>Public funding for clean energy is a problem to be solved. It’s not a technology problem. But it’s a blocker that prevents us from getting to the technology problems.</p>
<h3 id="funding-private"><a href="#funding-private">Private investment</a></h3>
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<div class="figure-caption" style="margin-bottom:4px;">U.S. military spending per year <span class="amount">$610 billon</span>
<span class="cite"><a href="http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/search/pagedetails.action;jsessionid=sLzjW3BPp1ZBpRCMnN7kfDp2nF3hHqyw6MmvprCLxlf4DyyLdj6X!1929810491!-352118568?granuleId=BUDGET-2015-TAB-5-1&packageId=BUDGET-2015-TAB">(source)</a></span></div>
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<div class="figure-caption" style="margin-top:16px;margin-bottom:4px;">U.S. venture capital investment per year <span class="amount">$48 billon</span>
<span class="cite"><a href="http://nvca.org/pressreleases/annual-venture-capital-investment-tops-48-billion-2014-reaching-highest-level-decade-according-moneytree-report/">(source)</a></span></div>
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<div class="figure-caption" style="margin-top:16px;margin-bottom:4px;">Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy budget <span class="amount">$2 billon</span>
<span class="cite"><a href="http://www5.eere.energy.gov/office_eere/program_budget_formulation.php">(source)</a></span></div>
<img src="Images/01-publicfunding-2.png" width="438" height="4">
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<div class="figure-caption" style="margin-top:16px;margin-bottom:4px;">ARPA-E budget <span class="amount">$0.3 billon</span>
<span class="cite"><a href="http://arpa-e.energy.gov/sites/default/files/ARPA-E%202016%20Budget.pdf">(source)</a></span></div>
<img src="Images/01-publicfunding-3.png" width="438" height="4">
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<div class="figure-caption" style="margin-top:16px;margin-bottom:4px;">NSF Energy for Sustainability budget <span class="amount">$0.02 billon</span>
<span class="cite"><a href="http://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/advancedSearchResult?WT.si_n=ClickedAbstractsRecentAwards&WT.si_x=1&WT.si_cs=1&WT.z_pims_id=501026&ProgEleCode=7644&BooleanElement=Any&BooleanRef=Any&ActiveAwards=true">(source)</a></span></div>
<img src="Images/01-publicfunding-4.png" width="438" height="1">
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<p>You can <a href="http://www.wired.com/2012/01/ff_solyndra/">read the story</a> of the so-called “cleantech bubble”. In brief — between 2008 and 2011, about $15 billion of enthusiastic venture capital went into energy-related startups. There were a few major failures, investors got spooked, and cleantech became taboo.</p>
<p>Late-stage venture funding has dwindled, and early-stage funding has all but disappeared. Founders spend their days scrounging instead of building. Consider the American energy storage company <a href="http://www.primuspower.com/">Primus Power</a>, which had to raise its <a href="http://www.marketwired.com/press-release/primus-power-secures-20-million-in-first-close-of-series-c-funding-1875328.htm">series C from a South African platinum company</a>, and <a href="http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/primus-power-raises-25m-to-bring-flow-batteries-to-kazakhstan">series D from Kazakhstan</a>.</p>
<p>The human race uses <a href="http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/KeyWorld2014.pdf">18 terawatts</a>, and will for the foreseeable future. So there are basically only two scenarios for investors as a collective:</p>
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<p>(a) invest in clean energy immediately; clean energy takes over the <a href="http://selectusa.commerce.gov/industry-snapshots/energy-industry-united-states">$6 trillion global energy market</a>; investors get a nice piece of that.</p>
<p>(b) don’t invest in clean energy immediately; fossil fuels <a href="http://www.carbontracker.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Unburnable-Carbon-Full-rev2-1.pdf">burn past our carbon budget</a>; investors inherit a <a href="http://daniellefong.com/2012/08/27/defusing-the-carbon-bomb/">cinder</a>.</p>
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<p>Scenario (a) seems like the most rational plan for everyone, in the long term. The fact that most investors’ short-term incentives are structured to prefer scenario (b) is a critical problem to be solved. Again, it’s not a technology problem, but it’s a blocker that prevents us from getting to the technology problems.</p>
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<div class="figure-caption" style="margin-bottom:8px;">world carbon emissions (in GtCO<sub>2</sub>/yr) and carbon budget
<span class="cite"><a href="Notes/03-carbon-budget.txt">(source)</a></span></div>
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<h2>Producing Energy</h2>
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<p>The primary cause of global warming is the dumping of carbon dioxide into the sky.</p>
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<p>The primary cause of that is the burning of coal, natural gas, and petroleum in order to generate electricity and move vehicles around.</p>
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<p>In order to stop dumping carbon dioxide into the sky, the world will have to generate its energy “cleanly”. For the purposes of this essay, that will mean mostly via solar and wind, although geothermal, hydroelectric, biomass, and nuclear will all have parts to play.</p>
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<p>This is well-known, but the scale and rate of change required is often unappreciated. Saul Griffith has a <a href="http://library.fora.tv/2009/01/16/Saul_Griffith_Climate_Change_Recalculated/Griffith_Proposes_Massive_Increase_in_Green_Energy">good bit about this</a>, suggesting that what’s needed is not throwing up a few solar panels, but a major industrial shift comparable to <a href="http://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/USA/BigL/BigL-1.html">retooling for World War II</a>.</p>
<p>In 1940 through 1942, U.S. war-related industrial production tripled each year. That’s over twice as fast as <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore%27s_law">Moore’s law</a>.</p>
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<div class="figure-caption" style="margin-bottom:-33px;">U.S. gross national product, WWII<br><span class="cite"><a href="http://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/USA/BigL/BigL-1.html" style="margin-left:0;">(source)</a></span></div>
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<p>In order to avoid the more <a href="http://www.informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/how-many-gigatons-of-co2">catastrophic climate scenarios</a>, global production and adoption of clean energy technology will have to scale at similar rates — but <a href="refs/DanielleFong-GrowthRateRequiredInEnergyStorage.pdf">continuously for 15 years or more</a>.</p>
<p>The catalyst for such a scale-up will necessarily be political. But even with political will, it can’t happen without technology that’s <i>capable</i> of scaling, and <i>economically viable</i> at scale.</p>
<p>As technologists, that’s where we come in.</p>
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<div class="figure" style="margin-bottom:-10px;">
<div class="figure-caption" style="margin-bottom:4px;">optimistic roadmap for 100% clean energy in U.S. by 2050, Mark Jacobson et al
<span class="cite"><a href="https://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/USStatesWWS.pdf">(source)</a></span></div>
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<h3 id="production-stuff"><a href="#production-stuff">The stuff around the thing</a></h3>
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<p>Many people seem to assume that breakthoughs in clean energy will come in the form of new generation technology — <a href="http://www.lockheedmartin.com/us/products/compact-fusion.html">fusion</a> <a href="http://news.mit.edu/2015/small-modular-efficient-fusion-plant-0810">reactors</a>, <a href="http://news.mit.edu/2013/thinner-solar-panels-0626">nanoscale solar cells</a>, that sort of thing.</p>
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<p>Those will be good things to have! But there’s more than enough power available to today’s solar cells and wind turbines — if only the <i>systems</i> were cheaper, simpler, and scalable. Here are a few examples of the kinds of projects I find interesting:</p>
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<p><a href="http://www.google.com/makani/">Makani</a> hoists its wind turbine to high altitudes with a flying wing instead of a tower.</p>
<blockquote>Makani’s energy kite actually operates on the same aerodynamic principles as a conventional wind turbine, but is able to replace tons of steel with lightweight electronics, advanced materials, and smart software. By using a flexible tether, energy kites eliminate <b>90% of the materials</b> used in conventional wind turbines, resulting in lower costs. <span class="cite"><a href="https://www.google.com/makani/faq/">(source)</a></span></blockquote>
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<p><a href="http://www.altaerosenergies.com/">Altaeros</a> uses a blimp.</p>
<blockquote>The Altaeros Buoyant Airborne Turbine reduces the second largest cost of wind energy – the installation and transport cost – by <b>up to 90 percent</b>, through a containerized deployment that does not require a tower, crane, or cement foundation. <span class="cite"><a href="http://www.altaerosenergies.com/value.html">(source)</a></span></blockquote>
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<p><a href="http://www.sunfolding.com/">Sunfolding</a> does solar tracking with pneumatically-actuated plastic soda bottles.</p>
<blockquote>Actuation and control are the highest cost components of today’s tracking systems. Together they account for nearly <b>50% of the tracking system cost</b>. We replace both with our new approach to tracker design. <span class="cite"><a href="http://www.sunfolding.com/">(source)</a></span></blockquote>
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<p>These projects aren’t about better generators. They are about dramatically reducing the cost of the stuff <i>around</i> the generator.</p>
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<p>Some of the best news of the last few years is the plunging cost of solar power. It’s instructive to look at what exactly is <a href="http://cleantechnica.com/2015/01/29/solar-costs-will-fall-40-next-2-years-heres/">responsible for the drop</a>. It’s partly cheaper solar panels, due to improved conversion efficiency and falling manufacturing costs. But panels are now so cheap that they only make up 25% of the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Balance_of_system">total system cost</a>.</p>
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<div class="figure-caption">levelized cost of solar photovoltaic power ($/MWh)
<span class="cite"><a href="http://rameznaam.com/2014/10/05/solar-wind-plunging-below-fossil-fuel-prices/">(source)</a></span></div>
<div class="script" data-script="svg 02-solar-price" style="width:440px;height:108px;"></div>
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<p>The majority of the price drop is now due to better inverters, and better mounting racks, and better installation techniques, and better ways for solar companies to interact with customers. There’s innovation everywhere, and you don’t need to be on the photovoltaic manufacturing line in order to play.</p>
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<p>The reason that these reductions in system cost are potentially so significant is the tipping point once solar and wind are consistently cheaper than fossil fuels and can be scaled up to meet demand.</p>
<p>My point here is that there are many ways of contributing toward innovation in the production of clean energy without going off and building a fusion reactor. Look at the stuff around the things.<p>
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<h3 id="production-computation"><a href="#production-computation">Computation</a></h3>
<p>Even for something as physical as power generation, the right software can make a signficant contribution. A few examples that come to mind:</p>
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<p><a href="http://www.kalyanv.org">Kalyan Veeramachaneni</a> et al at MIT used <a href="http://groups.csail.mit.edu/EVO-DesignOpt/groupWebSite/uploads/Main/IJCAI_sub_KV_AC_UM.pdf">modern probabilistic modeling</a> to <a href="https://news.mit.edu/2015/siting-wind-farms-quickly-cheaply-0717">dramatically improve</a> the process of estimating wind capacity at a location, calculating more accurate predictions in a fraction of the time.</p>
<blockquote>We talked with people in the wind industry, and we found that they were using a very, very simplistic mechanism to estimate the wind resource at a site. <span class="cite"><a href="https://news.mit.edu/2015/siting-wind-farms-quickly-cheaply-0717">(source)</a></span></blockquote>
<p>They didn’t invent a windmill; they invented an algorithm to determine where the windmill should go. It’s now a <a href="http://cardinalwind.com">startup</a>.</p>
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<div class="figure-caption" style="margin-bottom:-14px;margin-left:26px;">KL divergence (wrongness) of wind estimates from ground truth
<span class="cite"><a href="http://groups.csail.mit.edu/EVO-DesignOpt/groupWebSite/uploads/Site/Veeramachaneni_copula.pdf">(source)</a></span></div>
<img src="Images/02-veeramachaneni.png" width="417" height="210">
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<p><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Dabiri">John Dabiri</a>’s team at Caltech used aerodynamic analysis to <a href="http://www.caltech.edu/news/caltechs-unique-wind-projects-move-forward-39703">dramatically improve</a> the energy production and compactness of wind farms. Their work computes the optimal placement of vertical turbines so they <a href="http://dabirilab.com/fieldlab/">reinforce each other</a> instead of interfering, making possible large arrays of small turbines.</p>
<blockquote>
This approach dramatically extends the reach of wind energy, as smaller wind turbines can be installed in many places that larger systems cannot, especially in built environments. ...
Favorable economics stem from an <b>orders-of-magnitude reduction in the number of components</b> in a new generation of simple, mass-manufacturable (even 3D-printable), vertical-axis wind turbines. <span class="cite"><a href="http://static1.squarespace.com/static/55885cf4e4b04e6344662d6a/t/5589cc47e4b09ddbc396cb89/1435094087643/DaGrKoMoPe_AIPCP15.pdf">(source)</a></span></blockquote>
<p>Again, they didn’t invent a new windmill; they used <a href="http://static1.squarespace.com/static/55885cf4e4b04e6344662d6a/t/5589ce85e4b06ad87a6166b3/1435094661559/WhLiDa_BB10.pdf">computational modeling</a> to make viable a much smaller and cheaper existing windmill.</p>
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<div class="figure-caption" style="margin-bottom:-14px;margin-left:26px;">footprint power density (watts extracted per square meter of land)
<span class="cite"><a href="http://static1.squarespace.com/static/55885cf4e4b04e6344662d6a/t/5589cba1e4b0e41fcfcabba7/1435093921809/Da_PT14.pdf">(source)</a></span></div>
<img src="Images/02-dabiri.png" width="440" height="236">
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<p><a href="http://www.google.com/makani">Makani</a> and <a href="http://www.sunfolding.com">Sunfolding</a> both sprung from Saul Griffith’s <a href="https://otherlab.com">Otherlab</a>, and much of Otherlab’s magic lies in their code. A common theme is replacing physical material with dynamic control systems:</p>
<blockquote>[Makani’s kite’s] computer system uses GPS and other sensors along with thousands of real-time calculations to guide the kite to the flight path with the strongest and steadiest winds for maximum energy generation. <span class="cite"><a href="https://www.google.com/makani/technology/">(source)</a></span></blockquote>
<blockquote>
<span class="author">(Saul Griffith)</span> The really big themes I’d like to emphasize, because we need more people to join the club, so to speak, is the importance of being able to substitute a control system — sensors and computers — for actual materials... We are actually now replacing atoms with bits. <span class="cite"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gyMowPAJwqo&t=12m35s">(source)</a></span></blockquote>
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<p>as well as creating new software tools for design and manufacturing:</p>
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<blockquote><p>Griffith’s team had to write modeling software for the inflatables, because nobody had done anything like it before. But Otherlab creates its own software much of the time anyway. The 123D line of 3D modeling software offered by Autodesk grew out of one of his projects.</p>
<p>“We write all of our own tools, no matter what project we’re building,” Griffith says. “Pretty much anything that we’re doing requires some sort of design tool that didn’t exist before. In fact, the design tools that we write to do the projects that we’re doing are a sort of product in and of themselves.” <span class="cite"><a href="http://www.wired.com/2012/11/saul-griffith/">(source)</a></span></blockquote>
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<div class="figure-caption">123D Make</div>
<a href="http://www.123dapp.com/make"><img src="Images/02-123d-make.jpg" width="440" height="140"></a>
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<p>My point here is that software isn’t just for drawing pixels and manipulating databases — it underlies a lot of the innovation even in physical technology. More on this below.</p>
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<h2>Moving Energy</h2>
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<p>I recently visited the <a href="http://www.caiso.com/">California ISO</a>, which orchestrates the power grid to match energy production with consumption in realtime. The ISO exists because every megawatt that is generated at a power plant must be immediately consumed somewhere else. There’s no buffer in the system, aside from a few reservoirs where they can occasionally <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pumped-storage_hydroelectricity">pump water uphill</a>.</p>
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<p>So they’ve evolved a complex apparatus for <a href="http://www.caiso.com/Pages/TodaysOutlook.aspx">forecasting</a> energy demand, and sending realtime <a href="http://www.caiso.com/informed/Pages/EIMOverview/Default.aspx">price signals</a> to producers to make them adjust their output as needed. This is becoming a <a href="http://cleantechnica.com/2014/07/21/utilities-cry-fowl-over-duck-chart-and-distributed-solar-powercrying-fowl-or-crying-wolf-open-season-on-the-utilitys-solar-duck-chart/">formidable challenge</a> as more and more intermittent (thus, unpredictable) renewables like solar and wind come online, and dirty and expensive <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaking_power_plant">peaker plants</a> have to be ramped up or down on a moment’s notice to balance them out.</p>
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<div class="figure-caption" style="margin-bottom:5px;">California ISO supply and demand in gigawatts, on Oct 22, 2015
<span class="cite"><a href="Notes/03-demand-curve.html">(source)</a></span></div>
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<p>Everything about today’s power grid, from this centralized control to the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electrical_grid#Aging_Infrastructure">aging machinery</a> performing transmission and distribution, is not suitable for clean energy. The power grid was designed to take input from a handful of tightly-regulated power plants <a href="http://charming.awardspace.com/powergen/powergen.html">running in synchrony</a>, not millions of solar roofs. And it was designed for power plants that were <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Base_load_power_plant">always available and predictable</a>, not intermittent sources like the sun and wind.</p>
<blockquote>
If everyone in Los Angeles put solar panels on their roofs, plugged electric cars into their garages and used smart power-meters today, something interesting would happen. The electric grid would collapse. <span class="cite"><a href="http://newsroom.ucla.edu/stories/building-the-smart-grid-151474">(source)</a></span></blockquote>
<p>In order for clean energy to work, it needs to get from where and when it is generated, to where and when it needed. The “where” and “when” call for networking and storage, respectively.</p>
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<div class="figure-caption" style="margin-bottom:6px;">schematic of power grid in 1935, and also now <span class="cite"><a href="https://power2switch.com/blog/how-electricity-grew-up-a-brief-history-of-the-electrical-grid/">(source)</a></span></div>
<div class="script" data-script="svg 03-grid-schematic" style="width:440px;height:90px;"></div>
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<h3 id="moving-networking"><a href="#moving-networking">Energy networking <span>(moving energy in space)</span></a></h3>
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<p>The key idea that made the internet possible was the move from centralized <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Circuit_switching">circuit-switched</a> networks to distributed <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Packet_switching">packet-switching</a> protocols, where data could “find its way” from sender to receiver.</p>
<p>Now it’s energy that needs to <a href="http://morethansmart.org/">find its way</a>.</p>
<blockquote><p>The power network... will undergo the same kind of architectural transformation in the next decades that computing and the communication network has gone through in the last two.</p>
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<blockquote><p>We envision a future network with hundreds of millions of active endpoints. These are not merely passive loads as are most endpoints today, but endpoints that may generate, sense, compute, communicate, and actuate. They will create both a severe risk and a tremendous opportunity: an interconnected system of hundreds of millions of distributed energy resources (DERs) introducing rapid, large, and random fluctuations in power supply and demand...</p>
<p>As infrastructure deployment progresses, the new bottleneck will be the need for <b>overarching frameworks, foundational theories, and practical algorithms</b> to manage a fully [data-centric] power network. <span class="cite"><a href="http://smart.caltech.edu">(source)</a></span></p>
</blockquote>
<p>This is an <a href="http://smart.caltech.edu">algorithms problem</a>! It’s TCP/IP for energy. Think of these <a href="http://smart.caltech.edu/publications-0.shtml">algorithms</a> as hybrids of distributed networking protocols and financial trading algorithms — they are <a href="http://smart.caltech.edu/papers/zeroduality.pdf">routing energy</a> as well as <a href="http://smart.caltech.edu/papers/marketmodels.pdf">participating in a market</a>.</p>
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<a href="http://morethansmart.org/programs/more-than-smart/"><img src="Images/03-more-than-smart.jpg" width="440" height="220"></a>
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<p>TCP/IP spawned quite an <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outline_of_the_Internet">industry of infrastructure and applications</a>. It’s likely that something similar will happen as the <a href="https://www.smartgrid.gov/the_smart_grid/smart_grid.html">smart grid</a> gets underway. One DOE-funded project attempting to provide the infrastructure for such an industry is <a href="http://transactionalnetwork.pnnl.gov/volttron.stm">VOLTTRON</a>, an “Intelligent Agent Platform for the Smart Grid”.
<blockquote>
<p>VOLTTRON is an innovative distributed control and sensing software platform. Its source code has been released, making it possible for researchers and others to use this tool to build applications for more efficiently managing energy use among appliances and devices, including heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, lighting, electric vehicles and others. <span class="cite"><a href="http://gridoptics.pnnl.gov/VOLTTRON/">(source)</a></span></p></blockquote>
<blockquote>
<p>VOLTTRON is not an application such as demand response – demand response can be implemented as an application on top of VOLTTRON.</p>
<p>VOLTTRON is open, flexible and modular, and already benefits from community support and development. <span class="cite"><a href="http://transactionalnetwork.pnnl.gov/volttron.stm">(source)</a></span></p>
</blockquote>
<p>Protocols for <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_protocol_suite">moving</a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypertext_Transfer_Protocol">data</a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BitTorrent">around</a> were the big thing for a few decades. Then it was <a href="https://bitcoin.org">moving</a> <a href="https://www.stellar.org">money</a> <a href="https://stripe.com">around</a>. The next big thing will be moving energy around.</p>
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<a href="https://github.com/VOLTTRON/volttron"><img src="Images/04-volttron-github.png" width="440" height="432"></a>
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<h3 id="moving-storage"><a href="#moving-storage">Energy storage <span>(moving energy in time)</span></a></h3>
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<p>Relying on sun and wind is only possible if we can store up their energy for when it’s not sunny or windy. Many people assume that we’ll “just use batteries”, but the scale is off by a few orders of magnitude. All the batteries on earth can store <a class="no-preview" href="Notes/03-all-the-batteries.txt">less than ten minutes</a> of the world’s energy. At <a href="http://www.luxresearchinc.com/news-and-events/press-releases/read/energy-storage-market-rises-50-billion-2020-amid-dramatic">currently anticipated growth rates</a>, we wouldn’t have the batteries we need <a href="refs/DanielleFong-GrowthRateRequiredInEnergyStorage.pdf">for eighty years</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grid_energy_storage">Grid-scale energy storage</a> is perhaps the most critical technology problem in clean energy. When I visited the <a href="http://www.caiso.com/">ISO</a>, the operator was just about <a href="http://www.caiso.com/Documents/ISOStoragePilotProjects-AdvancingSmarterGrid.pdf">imploring</a> us to invent better energy storage technologies, because they would change the game entirely.</p>
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<div class="figure">
<div class="figure-caption" style="margin-bottom:5px;">actual and required battery growth rates (power in terawatts, log scale)
<span class="cite"><a href="refs/DanielleFong-GrowthRateRequiredInEnergyStorage.pdf">(source)</a></span></div>
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<p>Tesla recently announced their <a href="http://www.teslamotors.com/powerwall">home battery initiative</a>, and a <a href="http://www.teslamotors.com/gigafactory">Gigafactory</a> to produce them.</p>
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<img src="Images/03-lightsail.jpg" width="300" height="230">
<p> My friend Danielle Fong started <a href="http://www.lightsail.com/">LightSail Energy</a> to store energy by compressing air with an engine.</p>
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<p>There are various companies pursuing variations on batteries, compressors, flywheels, thermal storage, water pumps, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_energy_storage_projects">and more</a>.</p>
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<p>Particularly charming is <a href="http://www.aresnorthamerica.com/">Advanced Rail Energy Storage</a>, whose <a href="http://www.aresnorthamerica.com/grid-scale-energy-storage">proposal</a> is</p>
<blockquote>using lower-cost power to drive a train uphill and then let the train roll downhill to produce power when market prices are high. <span class="cite"><a href="http://www.aresnorthamerica.com/article/4875-advanced-rail-energy-storage-using-trains-to-store-power">(source)</a></span></blockquote>
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<p>There’s also something delightful about the image of <a href="http://www.calmac.com">CALMAC</a>’s <a href="http://www.calmac.com/calmac-products-and-specifications">IceBank®</a>, <a href="http://ice-energy.com">Ice Energy</a>’s <a href="http://ice-energy.com/technology/">Ice Bear®</a>, and <a href="http://www.axiomexergy.com">Axiom</a>’s <a href="http://www.axiomexergy.com/#!the-refrigeration-battery-/c1z06">Refrigeration Battery™</a> battling it out in the arena of building-sized ice makers.</p>
<blockquote>IceBank is an air-conditioning solution that makes ice at night [when energy demand is low] to cool buildings during the day. <span class="cite"><a href="http://www.calmac.com">(source)</a></span></blockquote>
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<p>All this may make energy storage seem like a competitive space. But the reality is that these companies aren’t competing with each other so much as they are competing with <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaking_power_plant">peaker plants</a> and cheap fossil fuels. An energy storage startup can be in the strange position of continually adjusting their product and strategy in response to fluctuations in fossil fuel prices.</p>
<p>But as in the case of energy production, there should be a tipping point if storing and reclaiming renewable energy can be made decisively cheaper than generating it from natural gas, and can be scaled up to meet demand.</p>
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<a href="http://www.lightsail.com/opportunity/"><img src="Images/03-equation.png" width="440" height="157"></a>
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<p>The core technologies in energy storage tend to be physics-based, but software plays essential roles in the form of design tools, simulation tools, and control systems. My favorite example is the inexplicably gorgeous <a href="https://www.materialsproject.org">Materials Project</a>, a database and visualization tool for material properties, funded by the Department of Energy’s <a href="http://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/vehicle-technologies-office">Vehicle Technologies Program</a> to help <a href="http://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2014/03/f9/vtpn07_es_howell_2012_o.pdf">invent better batteries</a>.
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<h2>Consuming Energy</h2>
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<h3 id="consumption-transportation"><a href="#consumption-transportation">Transportation <span>(consuming what?)</span></a></h3>
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<p>To the right is how the U.S. currently generates energy. The most conspicuous <a href="https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/commodities/carbon">source of carbon emissions</a> is the thick green bar from “petroleum” to “transportation”. We need to erase that.</p>
<p>While we’re at it, we also ought to erase the thick grey bar from “transportation” to “wasted”.</p>
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<p>Passenger vehicles account for the majority of transportation-related greenhouse gas emissions. There are a number of emerging ways to reduce this impact.</p>
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<p><b>Electric vehicles</b> are inevitable. Today, powering a car from the grid might not be much cleaner than burning gasoline. But once the grid cleans up, not only will electric cars be cleaner than gas cars, they may be <a href="http://www.templetons.com/brad/robocars/transit-ends.html">more efficient than mass transit</a>.</p>
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<p><b>New kinds of powered vehicles</b> are becoming possible which are more nimble and efficient than cars.</p>
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<p>Most trips people take are fairly short. It’s not inconceivable that new vehicles could replace cars for most trips if the technology, design, and marketing are right, and the proper <a href="http://www.wired.com/2015/06/copenhagenize-worlds-most-bike-friendly-cities/">infrastructure</a> and laws are in place. And you don’t need to start a <a href="http://www.teslamotors.com">car company</a> to <a href="https://www.faradaybikes.com">work</a> <a href="http://boostedboards.com/">on</a> <a href="http://ecorecoscooter.com/">them</a>.</p>
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<p><b>Coordinated autonomous vehicles</b> could lead to very different ways of moving around <a href="http://www.templetons.com/brad/robocars/whistlecar.html">people</a> and <a href="http://www.templetons.com/brad/robocars/deliverbots.html">deliveries</a>. This is basically mobile robotics on a big scale. And again, you don’t necessarily need to go work for a <a href="http://www.google.com/selfdrivingcar/">car company</a> in order to make <a href="http://www.starship.xyz">interesting things</a> here.</p>
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<p><b>Reducing the need</b> for personal transportation via <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Car-free_movement">urban design</a>. Among other reasons, this is important to counter the likely tendency of autonomous cars to <a href="https://askwonder.com/research-network/response/55f4ea68117aa6240064cdbe">increase urban sprawl</a>, which has been <a href="http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTURBANDEVELOPMENT/Resources/336387-1342044185050/8756911-1342044630817/V2Chap09.pdf">strongly correlated with emissions</a>.</p>
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<p>Similar opportunities apply to <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fleet_vehicle">fleet vehicles</a>. One of the <a href="http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/05/17/why-is-this-tesla-motors-co-founder-putting-jet-tu.aspx">cofounders of Tesla</a> is now in the business of <a href="http://www.wrightspeed.com">electrifying Fedex vans and garbage trucks</a>. Long-haul trucks are more of a challenge, but there’s room for improvement in <a href="http://www.actexpo.com/expohall">fuels</a>, <a href="http://www.truckingefficiency.org">vehicle design</a>, and <a href="http://www.grahampeacedesignmail.com/cwr/cwr2012_trucking_finall_download_singles.pdf">logistics</a>.</p>
<p>As for airplanes, people might just have to <a href="http://www.withouthotair.com/c5/page_35.shtml">fly less</a>. This will require better tools for remote collaboration, or in Saul Griffith’s words, “<a href="http://longnow.org/seminars/02015/sep/21/infrastructure-and-climate-change/#reader_wrapper">Make video conferencing not suck.</a>”</p>
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<h3 id="consumption-coordination"><a href="#consumption-coordination">Coordination <span>(consuming when?)</span></a></h3>
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<p>Many home appliances that consume significant electricity — air conditioner, water heater, clothes dryer, electric vehicle charger — have some tolerance in when they actually need to run. You don’t care exactly when your electric car is charging as long as it’s charged in the morning, and you don’t care exactly when your water heater is heating, as long as the tank stays hot.</p>
<p>If your water heater could talk to your neighbor’s water heater and agree to avoid heating water at the same time, it would flatten out the demand curve, and help avoid the ups and downs that must be serviced by <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaking_power_plant">peaker plants</a>. The water heater could also work aggressively when solar power was plentiful and hold back when clouds went by, to match the intermittency of renewables and require less energy storage.</p>
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<p>The <a href="http://www.rmi.org">Rocky Mountain Institute</a> calls this “<a href="http://www.rmi.org/electricity_demand_flexibility">demand flexibility</a>”, and imagines appliances coordinated through price signals.</p>
<blockquote>
Demand flexibility uses communication and control technology to shift electricity use across hours of the day while delivering end-use services at the same or better quality but lower cost. It does this by applying automatic control to reshape a customer’s demand profile continuously in ways that either are invisible to or minimally affect the customer. <span class="cite"><a href="http://www.rmi.org/cms/Download.aspx?id=11692&file=RMI-TheEconomicsofDemandFlexibilityExecSummary.pdf">(source)</a></span>
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<p>This sort of coordination is a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IBwtCjiBvR0&t=1m36s">goal</a> of many of the “smart grid” proposals.</p>
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<span class="cite"><a href="http://www.rmi.org/cms/Download.aspx?id=11693&file=RMI-TheEconomicsofDemandFlexibilityFullReport.pdf">(source)</a></span></div>
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<h3 id="consumption-efficiency"><a href="#consumption-efficiency">Efficiency <span>(consuming how much?)</span></a></h3>
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<div class="figure-caption" style="margin-bottom:4px;">per capita electricity use in MWh
<span class="cite"><a href="http://www.arb.ca.gov/research/seminars/chu/chu.pdf">(source)</a></span></div>
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<p>In the 1970s, efficiency pioneer <a href="http://eetd.lbl.gov/about-us/arthur-h-rosenfeld">Art Rosenfeld</a> instigated an <a href="http://www.energy.ca.gov/commissioners/rosenfeld_docs/2000-10_ROSENFELD_AUTOBIO.PDF">unprecedented program of energy saving</a>, literally halting the growth of per-capita electricity consumption in California.</p>
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<div class="figure-caption" style="margin-bottom:4px;">energy savings in California in TWh
<span class="cite"><a href="http://www.arb.ca.gov/research/seminars/chu/chu.pdf">(source)</a></span></div>
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<p>A lot of important technology came out of his lab, such as the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electrical_ballast">ballasts</a> that made <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compact_fluorescent_lamp">compact florescent lamps</a> viable, but his two biggest influences were regulatory. Half the energy savings in California came from <a href="https://eaei.lbl.gov/sites/all/files/sharing-the-savings-to-promote-energy-efficiency.pdf">adjusting the profit structure</a> of power utilities so they could be profitable selling <i>less</i> power.</p>
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<div class="figure-caption" style="margin-bottom:4px;">energy consumption of new U.S. refrigerators in MWh/yr
<span class="cite"><a href="http://www.energy.ca.gov/commissioners/rosenfeld_docs/2000-10_ROSENFELD_AUTOBIO.PDF">(source)</a></span></div>
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<p>The other half came from mandating energy usage standards for <a href="http://www.energy.ca.gov/title24/2013standards/">buildings</a> and <a href="http://energy.gov/eere/buildings/appliance-and-equipment-standards-program">appliances</a>. These standards, as well as more recent voluntary programs such as <a href="https://www.energystar.gov">Energy Star</a>, forced companies to compete on efficiency. This drove innovation (and even <a href="http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/9/11/114010/pdf">reduced cost!</a>) far more than simple consumer preference.</p></div><!-- grid-3-item -->
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<p>Building standards are a particularly interesting case here, because they were, and are, intimately tied to software.</p>
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<blockquote>
<p><span class="author">(Art Rosenfeld)</span> [In 1975] the CEC’s draft “Title 24” residential building standard proposed to limit window area to 15% of wall area, without distinguishing among north, south, east, and west. Indeed I don’t think the standard even mentioned the sun!</p>
<p>I contacted the CEC and discovered why they thought that windows wasted heat in winter and “coolth” in summer. The CEC staff had a choice of only two public-domain computer programs, the “Post Office” program, which was user hostile... and a newer program [NBSLD]... They chose NBSLD, but unfortunately had run it in a “fixed-thermostat” mode that kept the conditioned space at 72°F (22°C) all year...</p>
<p>NBSLD’s author, Tamami Kusuda, had written a “floating-temperature” option, but it was more complicated and still had bugs, and neither Tamami nor anybody at CEC could get it to work satisfactorily. No wonder the CEC concluded that windows wasted energy!</p>
<p>I decided that California needed two programs for energy analysis in buildings: first and immediately, a simple program for the design of single-family dwellings and, second and later, a comprehensive program for the design of large buildings, with a floating-indoor-temperature option and the ability to simulate HVAC distribution systems... <span class="cite"><a id="foo" href="http://www.energy.ca.gov/commissioners/rosenfeld_docs/2000-10_ROSENFELD_AUTOBIO.PDF">(source)</a></span></p>
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<p>Rosenfeld’s energy-modeling software (which became <a href="http://doe2.com/doe2/">DOE-2</a>, then <a href="https://energyplus.net">EnergyPlus</a>) was quickly and widely adopted for calculating and specifying building performance standards.</p>
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<p>Not only does <a href="https://simulationresearch.lbl.gov">energy simulation software</a> still <a href="http://www.energy.ca.gov/title24/2013standards/2013_computer_prog_list.html">drive building standards</a>, energy analysis tools such as <a href="https://gbs.autodesk.com/GBS/">Green Building Studio</a> and <a href="https://www.openstudio.net">OpenStudio</a> are now an integral part of the building design process. Particularly interesting are tools such as <a href="http://sefaira.com">Sefaira</a> and <a href="https://flux.io/">Flux</a>, which give the designer immediate feedback on energy performance as they <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F7snroYkomY&t=4m40s">adjust building parameters in realtime</a>.</p>
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<div class="inline" style="margin-right:10px;"><div class="figure-caption">Sefaira</div><a href="http://sefaira.com/"><img src="Images/04-sefaira.jpg" width="215" height="136"></a></div><div class="inline"><div class="figure-caption">Flux</div><a href="https://flux.io/"><img src="Images/04-flux.jpg" width="215" height="136"></a></div>
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<p>If efficiency incentives and tools have been effective for utilities, manufacturers, and designers, what about for end users? One concern I’ve always had is that most people have <i>no idea</i> where their energy goes, so any attempt to conserve is like optimizing a program without a profiler.</p>
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<p>Efficiency through analytics has motivated a lot of projects, from the humble and niche <a href="http://www.p3international.com/products/p4400.html">Kill-A-Watt</a>,</p>
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<p> to the characteristically <a href="http://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2011/07/microsoft-follows-googles-lead-cancels-hohm-energy-service/">short-lived</a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_PowerMeter">Google PowerMeter</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hohm">Microsoft Hohm</a> services.</p>
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<p>There are online energy calculators, such as <a href="http://www.lbl.gov">Berkeley Lab</a>’s <a href="http://homeenergysaver.lbl.gov/consumer/">Home Energy Saver</a>,</p>
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<p>and <a href="http://www.deckmonitoring.com/building-efficiency/building-efficiency-for-commercial.html">energy dashboards</a> are appearing in commercial and institutional buildings.</p>
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<p>Many of these projects are <a href="http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/Why-Your-Energy-Dashboard-May-be-Doomed-to-Fail">unsuccessful</a> and possibly only marginally effective. I don’t think this means that efficiency feedback will always be unsuccessful — just that it needs to be done <i>well,</i> it needs to be <i>actionable,</i> and most importantly, it needs to be targeted at people with the <i>motivation and leverage</i> to take significant action.</p>
<p>Individual consumers and homeowners might not be the best targets. A more promising audience is people who manage large-scale systems and services.</p>
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<p>For example, garbage collection. Garbage trucks stop-and-go down every street, in every city, at <a href="http://www.cert.ucr.edu/events/pems2014/liveagenda/25sandhu.pdf">3 miles per gallon</a>. The startup <a href="http://www.enevo.com">Enevo</a> makes sensors which trash collectors install in dumpsters, and provides logistics software that plans an optimal collection route each day. By only picking up full bins, they cut fuel consumption in half.</p>
<p>Enevo works at the system level, not consumer level. There are fewer customers at system-level, but those customers have the <i>motivation and leverage</i> to implement heavy efficiency improvements.</p>
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<h2>Tools for Scientists & Engineers</h2>
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<p>You won’t find programming languages mentioned in an <a href="http://www.ipcc.ch">IPCC</a> report. Their influence is indirect; they get taken for granted. But I feel that technical tools are of overwhelming importance, and completely under the radar of most people working to address climate change.</p>
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<h3 id="tools-technical"><a href="#tools-technical">Languages for technical computing</a></h3>
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<p>I was hanging out with climate scientists while working on <a href="http://pushpoppress.com/ourchoice/">Al Gore’s book</a>, and they mostly did their thing in <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R_(programming_language)">R</a>. This is typical; most statistical research is <a href="http://blog.kaggle.com/2011/11/27/kagglers-favorite-tools/">done in R</a>. The language seems to inspire a level of vitriol that’s impressive even by programmers’ standards. Even R’s advocates always seem <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6S9r_YbqHy8">sort of apologetic</a>.</p>
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Using R is a bit akin to smoking. The beginning is difficult, one may get headaches and even gag the first few times. But in the long run, it becomes pleasurable and even addictive. Yet, deep down, for those willing to be honest, there is something not fully healthy in it. <span class="cite"><a href="http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2012/02/29/comparing-r-to-smoking/">(source)</a></span></blockquote>
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<p>Complementary to R is <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MATLAB">Matlab</a>, the primary language for numerical computing in many scientific and engineering fields. It’s ubiquitous. Matlab has been described as “the PHP of scientific computing”.</p>
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MATLAB is not good. <a href="https://archive.is/GLnbp">Do not use it.</a> <span class="cite"><a href="https://archive.is/GLnbp">(source)</a></span></blockquote>
<p>R and Matlab are both forty years old, weighed down with forty years of cruft and bad design decisions. Scientists and engineers use them because they are the vernacular, and there are no better alternatives.</p>
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<p>Here’s an opinion you might not hear much — I feel that one effective approach to addressing climate change is contributing to the development of <a href="http://julialang.org/">Julia</a>. Julia is a modern technical language, intended to replace Matlab, R, SciPy, and C++ on the scientific workbench. It’s <a href="http://danluu.com/julialang">immature</a> right now, but it has beautiful <a href="http://arxiv.org/abs/1411.1607">foundations</a>, enthusiastic users, and a lot of potential.</p>
<p>I say this despite the fact that my own work has been in much the opposite direction as Julia. Julia inherits the textual interaction of classic Matlab, SciPy and other children of the teletype — source code and command lines.</p>
<p>The goal of my own research has been tools where scientists see what they’re doing in realtime, with immediate visual feedback and interactive exploration. I deeply believe that a sea change in invention and discovery is possible, once technologists are working in environments designed around:</p>
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<div class="figure-caption">Interactive Exploration of a Dynamical System</div>
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<p>ubiquitous visualization and in-context manipulation of the system being studied;</p>