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Update forecasting-community-water-system-outages.md
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m-sullivan7 authored Feb 7, 2024
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<div class="author-header-block">
<a href="https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5662-9604" title="California Office of Data and Innovation, 401 I Street, Ste 200, Sacramento, CA 95814">Monica G. Bobra</a> <a href="https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5662-9604"><img class="orcid-cite" src="/img/orcid-icon.svg"/></a>, Dan Wang, Hung Bui, Esa Eslami, Kimberly Hicks, Eric Zúñiga, Arman Madani <a href="https://orcid.org/0009-0002-4237-0213"><img class="orcid-cite" src="/img/orcid-icon.svg"/></a>
Monica G. Bobra <a href="https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5662-9604"><img class="orcid-cite" src="/img/orcid-icon.svg"/></a>, Dan Wang, Hung Bui, Esa Eslami, Kimberly Hicks, Eric Zúñiga, Arman Madani <a href="https://orcid.org/0009-0002-4237-0213"><img class="orcid-cite" src="/img/orcid-icon.svg"/></a>
</div>
<!-- Dan Wang², Hung Bui², Esa Eslami¹, Kimberly Hicks¹, Eric Zúñiga², [Arman Madani](https://orcid.org/0009-0002-4237-0213)¹ <a href="https://orcid.org/0009-0002-4237-0213"><img class="orcid-cite" src="/img/orcid-icon.svg"/></a>
¹ California Office of Data and Innovation, 401 I Street, Ste 200, Sacramento, CA 95814
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Forecasting the impact of drought on community water systems requires modeling three processes. One, an infrastructure process that describes the flow of water throughout the network of water systems in California. Two, a physical process that describes the flow of groundwater, through rocks and soil and the flow of surface water through streams, rivers, and reservoirs. Three, readily available drought indicators that summarize regional drought stress over time.

To capture elements of these processes, we used three categories of data. One category describes how interconnected the water system is to other nearby water systems. Researchers show that many systems fail because they rely on only one source of water (Mullin, 2020). Another category of data describes the location, along with characteristics of surface water watersheds and ground water basins, of each water system related to the hydrology or movement of water above and below ground. Finally, we used a [Drought Severity and Coverage Index](https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/docs/DSCI_fact_sheet.pdf) which quantifies U.S. Drought Monitor statuses on a weekly basis using a scale from zero to 500 for any county, summarizing drought severity and coverage over time through a weighted sum approach.
To capture elements of these processes, we used three categories of data. One category describes how interconnected the water system is to other nearby water systems. Researchers show that many systems fail because they rely on only one source of water (Mullin, 2020). Another category of data describes the location, along with characteristics of surface water watersheds and ground water basins, of each water system related to the hydrology or movement of water above and below ground. Finally, we used a Drought Severity and Coverage Index which quantifies [U.S. Drought Monitor](https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/docs/DSCI_fact_sheet.pdf) statuses on a weekly basis using a scale from zero to 500 for any county, summarizing drought severity and coverage over time through a weighted sum approach.

Our dataset describes 2,866 water systems over two years, from 2021 to 2023. We use fifteen features and one outcome to describe each system. Most community water systems in our sample, 96%, were resilient to drought. Four percent experienced some effects: these systems ran out of water, sustained themselves on bottled or hauled water, experienced a drought violation, or requested continued use of a source that was legally curtailed.

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