Results - You can see the results on the html file in src/
Disclaimer - This repository was created for educational purposes and we do not take any responsibility for anything related to its content. You are free to use any code or algorithm you find, but do so at your own risk.
Notebook by Martim Pinto da Silva, LuisRamos, Francisco Gonçalves
Supported by Luis Paulo Reis
It is recommended to view this notebook in nbviewer for the best overall experience
You can also execute the code on this notebook using Jupyter Notebook or Binder(no local installation required)
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- Step 1: Data analysis
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- Step 2: Classification & Results Interpretation
In the most recent years there's been a major influx of data. In response to this situation, Machine Learning alongside the field of Data Science have come to the forefront, representing the desire of humans to better understand and make sense of the current abundance of data in the world we live in.
In this notebook, we look forward to use Supervised Learning models to harness a dataset of around 25k football matches in order to be able to predict the outcome of other matchups according to a set of classes (win, draw, loss, etc.)
If you don't have Python on your computer, you can use the Anaconda Python distribution to install most of the Python packages you need. Anaconda provides a simple double-click installer for your convenience.
This notebook uses several Python packages that come standard with the Anaconda Python distribution. The primary libraries that we'll be using are:
NumPy: Provides a fast numerical array structure and helper functions.
pandas: Provides a DataFrame structure to store data in memory and work with it easily and efficiently.
scikit-learn: The essential Machine Learning package for a variaty of supervised learning models, in Python.
tensorflow: The essential Machine Learning package for deep learning, in Python.
matplotlib: Basic plotting library in Python; most other Python plotting libraries are built on top of it.
Regarding the supervised learning models, we are using:
- [Gaussian Naive Bayes](https://scikit- learn.org/stable/modules/generated/sklearn.naive_bayes.GaussianNB.html)
- Nearest Neighbors
- [DecisionTree](https://scikit- learn.org/stable/modules/generated/sklearn.tree.DecisionTreeClassifier.html)
- Support Vector Machines
- XGBoost
- Neural Networks
- Deep Neural Networks
# Primary libraries
from time import time
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import sqlite3
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
# Models
from sklearn.naive_bayes import GaussianNB
from sklearn.neighbors import KNeighborsClassifier
from sklearn.tree import DecisionTreeClassifier
from sklearn.svm import SVC
from xgboost import XGBClassifier
# Neural Networks
from tensorflow import keras
from keras.models import Sequential
from keras.layers import Dense
from keras.layers import Flatten
from keras.layers import Input
from keras.models import Model
from keras.utils import np_utils
# Measures
from sklearn.preprocessing import Normalizer
from sklearn.preprocessing import StandardScaler
from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split
from sklearn.metrics import classification_report, accuracy_score
from sklearn import metrics
from sklearn.model_selection import KFold
from sklearn.preprocessing import LabelEncoder The first step to any data analysis project is to define the question or problem we're looking to solve, and to define a measure (or set of measures) for our success at solving that task. The data analysis checklist has us answer a handful of questions to accomplish that, so let's work through those questions.
Did you specify the type of data analytic question (e.g. exploration, association causality) before touching the data?
We are trying to design a predictive model capable of accurately predicting if the home team will either win, lose or draw, i.e., predict the outcome of football matche based on a set of measurements, including player ratings, team ratings, team average stats(possession, corners, shoots), team style(pressing, possession, defending, counter attacking, speed of play, ..) and team match history(previous games).
Let's do that now. Since we're performing classification, we can use accuracy - the fraction of correctly classified matches - to quantify how well our model is performing. Knowing that most bookkeepers predict matches with an accuracy of 50%, we will try to match or beat that value. We will also use a confusion matrix, and analyse the precision, recall and f1-score.
The data provided has information about more than 25k matches across multiple leagues. Even though the usability isn't great, after some processing and cleansing of the data, we will be able to predict matches with great confidence. To answer the question, yes, we have more than enough data to analyse football matches..
The first step we have, is to look at the data, and after extracting, analyse it. We know that most datasets can contain minor issues, so we have to search for possible null or not defined values, and if so how do we proceed? Do we remove an entire row of a Dataframe? Maybe we just need to purify and substitute it's value? This analysis is done below.
Before analysing the data, we need to first extract it. For that we use multiple methods to have a cleaner code
with sqlite3.connect("../dataset/database.sqlite") as con:
matches = pd.read_sql_query("SELECT * from Match", con)
team_attributes = pd.read_sql_query("SELECT distinct * from Team_Attributes",con)
player = pd.read_sql_query("SELECT * from Player",con)
player_attributes = pd.read_sql_query("SELECT * from Player_Attributes",con)We start by cleaning the match data and defining some methods for the data extraction and the labels
''' Derives a label for a given match. '''
def get_match_outcome(match):
#Define variables
home_goals = match['home_team_goal']
away_goals = match['away_team_goal']
outcome = pd.DataFrame()
outcome.loc[0,'match_api_id'] = match['match_api_id']
#Identify match outcome
if home_goals > away_goals:
outcome.loc[0,'outcome'] = "Win"
if home_goals == away_goals:
outcome.loc[0,'outcome'] = "Draw"
if home_goals < away_goals:
outcome.loc[0,'outcome'] = "Defeat"
#Return outcome
return outcome.loc[0]
''' Get the last x matches of a given team. '''
def get_last_matches(matches, date, team, x = 10):
#Filter team matches from matches
team_matches = matches[(matches['home_team_api_id'] == team) | (matches['away_team_api_id'] == team)]
#Filter x last matches from team matches
last_matches = team_matches[team_matches.date < date].sort_values(by = 'date', ascending = False).iloc[0:x,:]
#Return last matches
return last_matches
''' Get the last team stats of a given team. '''
def get_last_team_stats(team_id, date, team_stats):
#Filter team stats
all_team_stats = teams_stats[teams_stats['team_api_id'] == team_id]
#Filter last stats from team
last_team_stats = all_team_stats[all_team_stats.date < date].sort_values(by='date', ascending=False)
if last_team_stats.empty:
last_team_stats = all_team_stats[all_team_stats.date > date].sort_values(by='date', ascending=True)
#Return last matches
return last_team_stats.iloc[0:1,:]
''' Get the last x matches of two given teams. '''
def get_last_matches_against_eachother(matches, date, home_team, away_team, x = 10):
#Find matches of both teams
home_matches = matches[(matches['home_team_api_id'] == home_team) & (matches['away_team_api_id'] == away_team)]
away_matches = matches[(matches['home_team_api_id'] == away_team) & (matches['away_team_api_id'] == home_team)]
total_matches = pd.concat([home_matches, away_matches])
#Get last x matches
try:
last_matches = total_matches[total_matches.date < date].sort_values(by = 'date', ascending = False).iloc[0:x,:]
except:
last_matches = total_matches[total_matches.date < date].sort_values(by = 'date', ascending = False).iloc[0:total_matches.shape[0],:]
#Check for error in data
if(last_matches.shape[0] > x):
print("Error in obtaining matches")
#Return data
return last_matches
''' Get the goals[home & away] of a specfic team from a set of matches. '''
def get_goals(matches, team):
home_goals = int(matches.home_team_goal[matches.home_team_api_id == team].sum())
away_goals = int(matches.away_team_goal[matches.away_team_api_id == team].sum())
total_goals = home_goals + away_goals
return total_goals
''' Get the goals[home & away] conceided of a specfic team from a set of matches. '''
def get_goals_conceided(matches, team):
home_goals = int(matches.home_team_goal[matches.away_team_api_id == team].sum())
away_goals = int(matches.away_team_goal[matches.home_team_api_id == team].sum())
total_goals = home_goals + away_goals
return total_goals
''' Get the number of wins of a specfic team from a set of matches. '''
def get_wins(matches, team):
#Find home and away wins
home_wins = int(matches.home_team_goal[(matches.home_team_api_id == team) & (matches.home_team_goal > matches.away_team_goal)].count())
away_wins = int(matches.away_team_goal[(matches.away_team_api_id == team) & (matches.away_team_goal > matches.home_team_goal)].count())
total_wins = home_wins + away_wins
return total_wins
''' Create match specific features for a given match. '''
def get_match_features(match, matches, teams_stats, x = 10):
#Define variables
date = match.date
home_team = match.home_team_api_id
away_team = match.away_team_api_id
# Gets home and away team_stats
home_team_stats = get_last_team_stats(home_team, date, teams_stats);
away_team_stats = get_last_team_stats(away_team, date, teams_stats);
#Get last x matches of home and away team
matches_home_team = get_last_matches(matches, date, home_team, x = 5)
matches_away_team = get_last_matches(matches, date, away_team, x = 5)
#Get last x matches of both teams against each other
last_matches_against = get_last_matches_against_eachother(matches, date, home_team, away_team, x = 3)
#Create goal variables
home_goals = get_goals(matches_home_team, home_team)
away_goals = get_goals(matches_away_team, away_team)
home_goals_conceided = get_goals_conceided(matches_home_team, home_team)
away_goals_conceided = get_goals_conceided(matches_away_team, away_team)
#Define result data frame
result = pd.DataFrame()
#Define ID features
result.loc[0, 'match_api_id'] = match.match_api_id
result.loc[0, 'league_id'] = match.league_id
#Create match features and team stats
if(not home_team_stats.empty):
result.loc[0, 'home_team_buildUpPlaySpeed'] = home_team_stats['buildUpPlaySpeed'].values[0]
result.loc[0, 'home_team_buildUpPlayPassing'] = home_team_stats['buildUpPlayPassing'].values[0]
result.loc[0, 'home_team_chanceCreationPassing'] = home_team_stats['chanceCreationPassing'].values[0]
result.loc[0, 'home_team_chanceCreationCrossing'] = home_team_stats['chanceCreationCrossing'].values[0]
result.loc[0, 'home_team_chanceCreationShooting'] = home_team_stats['chanceCreationShooting'].values[0]
result.loc[0, 'home_team_defencePressure'] = home_team_stats['defencePressure'].values[0]
result.loc[0, 'home_team_defenceAggression'] = home_team_stats['defenceAggression'].values[0]
result.loc[0, 'home_team_defenceTeamWidth'] = home_team_stats['defenceTeamWidth'].values[0]
result.loc[0, 'home_team_avg_shots'] = home_team_stats['avg_shots'].values[0]
result.loc[0, 'home_team_avg_corners'] = home_team_stats['avg_corners'].values[0]
result.loc[0, 'home_team_avg_crosses'] = away_team_stats['avg_crosses'].values[0]
if(not away_team_stats.empty):
result.loc[0, 'away_team_buildUpPlaySpeed'] = away_team_stats['buildUpPlaySpeed'].values[0]
result.loc[0, 'away_team_buildUpPlayPassing'] = away_team_stats['buildUpPlayPassing'].values[0]
result.loc[0, 'away_team_chanceCreationPassing'] = away_team_stats['chanceCreationPassing'].values[0]
result.loc[0, 'away_team_chanceCreationCrossing'] = away_team_stats['chanceCreationCrossing'].values[0]
result.loc[0, 'away_team_chanceCreationShooting'] = away_team_stats['chanceCreationShooting'].values[0]
result.loc[0, 'away_team_defencePressure'] = away_team_stats['defencePressure'].values[0]
result.loc[0, 'away_team_defenceAggression'] = away_team_stats['defenceAggression'].values[0]
result.loc[0, 'away_team_defenceTeamWidth'] = away_team_stats['defenceTeamWidth'].values[0]
result.loc[0, 'away_team_avg_shots'] = away_team_stats['avg_shots'].values[0]
result.loc[0, 'away_team_avg_corners'] = away_team_stats['avg_corners'].values[0]
result.loc[0, 'away_team_avg_crosses'] = away_team_stats['avg_crosses'].values[0]
result.loc[0, 'home_team_goals_difference'] = home_goals - home_goals_conceided
result.loc[0, 'away_team_goals_difference'] = away_goals - away_goals_conceided
result.loc[0, 'games_won_home_team'] = get_wins(matches_home_team, home_team)
result.loc[0, 'games_won_away_team'] = get_wins(matches_away_team, away_team)
result.loc[0, 'games_against_won'] = get_wins(last_matches_against, home_team)
result.loc[0, 'games_against_lost'] = get_wins(last_matches_against, away_team)
result.loc[0, 'B365H'] = match.B365H
result.loc[0, 'B365D'] = match.B365D
result.loc[0, 'B365A'] = match.B365A
#Return match features
return result.loc[0]
''' Create and aggregate features and labels for all matches. '''
def get_features(matches, teams_stats, fifa, x = 10, get_overall = False):
#Get fifa stats features
fifa_stats = get_overall_fifa_rankings(fifa, get_overall)
#Get match features for all matches
match_stats = matches.apply(lambda i: get_match_features(i, matches, teams_stats, x = 10), axis = 1)
#Create dummies for league ID feature
dummies = pd.get_dummies(match_stats['league_id']).rename(columns = lambda x: 'League_' + str(x))
match_stats = pd.concat([match_stats, dummies], axis = 1)
match_stats.drop(['league_id'], inplace = True, axis = 1)
#Create match outcomes
outcomes = matches.apply(get_match_outcome, axis = 1)
#Merges features and outcomes into one frame
features = pd.merge(match_stats, fifa_stats, on = 'match_api_id', how = 'left')
features = pd.merge(features, outcomes, on = 'match_api_id', how = 'left')
#Drop NA values
features.dropna(inplace = True)
#Return preprocessed data
return features
def get_overall_fifa_rankings(fifa, get_overall = False):
''' Get overall fifa rankings from fifa data. '''
temp_data = fifa
#Check if only overall player stats are desired
if get_overall == True:
#Get overall stats
data = temp_data.loc[:,(fifa.columns.str.contains('overall_rating'))]
data.loc[:,'match_api_id'] = temp_data.loc[:,'match_api_id']
else:
#Get all stats except for stat date
cols = fifa.loc[:,(fifa.columns.str.contains('date_stat'))]
temp_data = fifa.drop(cols.columns, axis = 1)
data = temp_data
#Return data
return dataviable_matches = matches
viable_matches.describe()Looking at the match data we can see that most columns have 25979 values. This means we are analysing this number of matches from the database. We can start by looking at the bookkeeper data. We can see that the number of bookkepper match data is different for each bookkeper. We start by selecting the bookeeper with the most predictions data available.
viable_matches = matches.sample(n=5000)
b365 = viable_matches.dropna(subset=['B365H', 'B365D', 'B365A'],inplace=False)
b365.drop(['BWH', 'BWD', 'BWA',
'IWH', 'IWD', 'IWA',
'LBH', 'LBD', 'LBA',
'PSH', 'PSD', 'PSA',
'WHH', 'WHD', 'WHA',
'SJH', 'SJD', 'SJA',
'VCH', 'VCD', 'VCA',
'GBH', 'GBD', 'GBA',
'BSH', 'BSD', 'BSA'], inplace = True, axis = 1)
bw = viable_matches.dropna(subset=['BWH', 'BWD', 'BWA'],inplace=False)
bw.drop(['B365H', 'B365D', 'B365A',
'IWH', 'IWD', 'IWA',
'LBH', 'LBD', 'LBA',
'PSH', 'PSD', 'PSA',
'WHH', 'WHD', 'WHA',
'SJH', 'SJD', 'SJA',
'VCH', 'VCD', 'VCA',
'GBH', 'GBD', 'GBA',
'BSH', 'BSD', 'BSA'], inplace=True, axis = 1)
iw = viable_matches.dropna(subset=['IWH', 'IWD', 'IWA'],inplace=False)
iw.drop(['B365H', 'B365D', 'B365A',
'BWH', 'BWD', 'BWA',
'LBH', 'LBD', 'LBA',
'PSH', 'PSD', 'PSA',
'WHH', 'WHD', 'WHA',
'SJH', 'SJD', 'SJA',
'VCH', 'VCD', 'VCA',
'GBH', 'GBD', 'GBA',
'BSH', 'BSD', 'BSA'], inplace=True, axis = 1)
lb = viable_matches.dropna(subset=['LBH', 'LBD', 'LBA'],inplace=False)
lb.drop(['B365H', 'B365D', 'B365A',
'BWH', 'BWD', 'BWA',
'IWH', 'IWD', 'IWA',
'PSH', 'PSD', 'PSA',
'WHH', 'WHD', 'WHA',
'SJH', 'SJD', 'SJA',
'VCH', 'VCD', 'VCA',
'GBH', 'GBD', 'GBA',
'BSH', 'BSD', 'BSA'], inplace=True, axis = 1)
ps = viable_matches.dropna(subset=['PSH', 'PSD', 'PSA'],inplace=False)
ps.drop(['B365H', 'B365D', 'B365A',
'BWH', 'BWD', 'BWA',
'IWH', 'IWD', 'IWA',
'LBH', 'LBD', 'LBA',
'WHH', 'WHD', 'WHA',
'SJH', 'SJD', 'SJA',
'VCH', 'VCD', 'VCA',
'GBH', 'GBD', 'GBA',
'BSH', 'BSD', 'BSA'], inplace=True, axis = 1)
wh = viable_matches.dropna(subset=['WHH', 'WHD', 'WHA'],inplace=False)
wh.drop(['B365H', 'B365D', 'B365A',
'BWH', 'BWD', 'BWA',
'IWH', 'IWD', 'IWA',
'LBH', 'LBD', 'LBA',
'PSH', 'PSD', 'PSA',
'SJH', 'SJD', 'SJA',
'VCH', 'VCD', 'VCA',
'GBH', 'GBD', 'GBA',
'BSH', 'BSD', 'BSA'], inplace=True, axis = 1)
sj = viable_matches.dropna(subset=['SJH', 'SJD', 'SJA'],inplace=False)
sj.drop(['B365H', 'B365D', 'B365A',
'BWH', 'BWD', 'BWA',
'IWH', 'IWD', 'IWA',
'LBH', 'LBD', 'LBA',
'PSH', 'PSD', 'PSA',
'WHH', 'WHD', 'WHA',
'VCH', 'VCD', 'VCA',
'GBH', 'GBD', 'GBA',
'BSH', 'BSD', 'BSA'], inplace=True, axis = 1)
vc = viable_matches.dropna(subset=['VCH', 'VCD', 'VCA'],inplace=False)
vc.drop(['B365H', 'B365D', 'B365A',
'BWH', 'BWD', 'BWA',
'IWH', 'IWD', 'IWA',
'LBH', 'LBD', 'LBA',
'PSH', 'PSD', 'PSA',
'WHH', 'WHD', 'WHA',
'SJH', 'SJD', 'SJA',
'GBH', 'GBD', 'GBA',
'BSH', 'BSD', 'BSA'], inplace=True, axis = 1)
gb = viable_matches.dropna(subset=['GBH', 'GBD', 'GBA'],inplace=False)
gb.drop(['B365H', 'B365D', 'B365A',
'BWH', 'BWD', 'BWA',
'IWH', 'IWD', 'IWA',
'LBH', 'LBD', 'LBA',
'PSH', 'PSD', 'PSA',
'WHH', 'WHD', 'WHA',
'SJH', 'SJD', 'SJA',
'VCH', 'VCD', 'VCA',
'BSH', 'BSD', 'BSA'], inplace=True, axis = 1)
bs = viable_matches.dropna(subset=['BSH', 'BSD', 'BSA'],inplace=False)
bs.drop(['B365H', 'B365D', 'B365A',
'BWH', 'BWD', 'BWA',
'IWH', 'IWD', 'IWA',
'LBH', 'LBD', 'LBA',
'PSH', 'PSD', 'PSA',
'WHH', 'WHD', 'WHA',
'SJH', 'SJD', 'SJA',
'VCH', 'VCD', 'VCA',
'GBH', 'GBD', 'GBA'], inplace=True, axis = 1)
lis = [b365, bw, iw, lb, ps, wh, sj, vc, gb, bs]
viable_matches = max(lis, key = lambda datframe: datframe.shape[0])
viable_matches.describe()Analysing the description of the dataframe, we can see that the bookkeper regarding Bet 365 has the most available information and, has such, we will decide to selected it as a feature input for our models.
We also need to consider that some of these matches may not be on the team attributes that we will clean after this. In that case, we need to remove any matches that does not contain any team stats information, since mean imputation would't work in these case.
We also need to remove some rows that do not contain any information about the position of the players for some matches.
teams_stats = team_attributes
viable_matches = viable_matches.dropna(inplace=False)
home_teams = viable_matches['home_team_api_id'].isin(teams_stats['team_api_id'].tolist())
away_teams = viable_matches['away_team_api_id'].isin(teams_stats['team_api_id'].tolist())
viable_matches = viable_matches[home_teams & away_teams]
viable_matches.describe()teams_stats.describe()Looking at the description of team attributes we can see that there are a lot of values missing from the column buildUpPlayDribbling, and all the other values seem to have the right amout of rows. This means that there are a lot of values with 'Nan' on this column.
It's not ideal that we just drop those rows. Seems like the missing data on the column is systematic - all of the missing values are in the same column - this error could potentially bias our analysis.
One way to deal with missing values is mean imputation. If we know that the values for a measurement fall in a certain range, we can fill in empty values with the average of that measure.
teams_stats['buildUpPlayDribbling'].hist();We can see that most buildUpPlayDribbling values fall within the 45 - 55 range, so let's fill in these entries with the average measured buildUpPlaySpeed
build_up_play_drib_avg = teams_stats['buildUpPlayDribbling'].mean()
# mean imputation
teams_stats.loc[(teams_stats['buildUpPlayDribbling'].isnull()), 'buildUpPlayDribbling'] = build_up_play_drib_avg
# showing new values
teams_stats.loc[teams_stats['buildUpPlayDribbling'] == build_up_play_drib_avg].head()teams_stats.loc[(teams_stats['buildUpPlayDribbling'].isnull())]Having done the mean imputation for team_attributes we can see that there are no longer missing values for the buildUpPlayDribbling. After that, we decided to select only continuous data, i.e, select only columns that "store" numerical values that we will provide to the input of the supervised learning models.
teams_stats.drop(['buildUpPlaySpeedClass', 'buildUpPlayDribblingClass', 'buildUpPlayPassingClass',
'buildUpPlayPositioningClass', 'chanceCreationPassingClass', 'chanceCreationCrossingClass',
'chanceCreationShootingClass','chanceCreationPositioningClass','defencePressureClass', 'defenceAggressionClass',
'defenceTeamWidthClass','defenceDefenderLineClass'], inplace = True, axis = 1)
teams_stats.describe()After cleaning the team attributes data we need to consider adding some more stats to each match. We will start by adding the average of the number of shots per team. The number of shots consists on the sum of the shots on target and the shots of target. After merging all the information to teams_stats we have to analyse the data again.
shots_off = pd.read_csv("../dataset/shotoff_detail.csv")
shots_on = pd.read_csv("../dataset/shoton_detail.csv")
shots = pd.concat([shots_off[['match_id', 'team']], shots_on[['match_id', 'team']]])
total_shots = shots["team"].value_counts()
total_matches = shots.drop_duplicates(['match_id', 'team'])["team"].value_counts()
for index, n_shots in total_shots.iteritems():
n_matches = total_matches[index]
avg_shots = n_shots / n_matches
teams_stats.loc[teams_stats['team_api_id'] == index, 'avg_shots'] = avg_shots
teams_stats.describe()As we can see, there are a lot of Nan values on the avg_shots column. This represents teams that did not have shots data on this dataset. Instead of removing thoose rows, and give less input to our models we need again to do mean imputation and deal with these values.
teams_stats['avg_shots'].hist();We can see that most avg_shots values fall within the 7 - 14 range, so let's fill in these entries with the average measured avg_shots
shots_avg_team_avg = teams_stats['avg_shots'].mean()
# mean imputation
teams_stats.loc[(teams_stats['avg_shots'].isnull()), 'avg_shots'] = shots_avg_team_avg
# showing new values
teams_stats.describe()teams_stats.loc[(teams_stats['avg_shots'].isnull())]Having done the mean imputation for team_attributes we can see that there are no longer missing values for the avg_shots.
We will now add another stat, the ball possession. One of the more important statistics to predict the match results. If we look closely the most dominating teams usually control the ball possession very easily. We can see first that the csv have repeated values for the ball possession, for each match, based on the elapsed time of the match. We need to remove all the values that do not refer to the 90 minutes mark of the elapsed time.
# possessions read, cleanup and merge
possessions_data = pd.read_csv("../dataset/possession_detail.csv")
last_possessions = possessions_data.sort_values(['elapsed'], ascending=False).drop_duplicates(subset=['match_id'])
last_possessions = last_possessions[['match_id', 'homepos', 'awaypos']]After reading it, we need to see if the number of possession data we have available is enough to be considered
# get the ids of the home_team and away_team to be able to join with teams later
possessions = pd.DataFrame(columns=['team', 'possession', 'match'])
for index, row in last_possessions.iterrows():
match = matches.loc[matches['id'] == row['match_id'], ['home_team_api_id', 'away_team_api_id']]
if match.empty:
continue
hometeam = match['home_team_api_id'].values[0]
awayteam = match['away_team_api_id'].values[0]
possessions = possessions.append({'team': hometeam, 'possession': row['homepos'], 'match': row['match_id']}, ignore_index=True)
possessions = possessions.append({'team': awayteam, 'possession': row['awaypos'], 'match': row['match_id']}, ignore_index=True)
total_possessions = possessions.groupby(by=['team'])['possession'].sum()
total_matches = possessions.drop_duplicates(['team', 'match'])["team"].value_counts()
total_possessions.to_frame().describe()Since the number of average possession regarding the number of viable matches is very low it doesn't make any sense to do mean imputation in this instance. After carefully consideration, we decided to scrap this attribute, even though this attribute as a very important meaning. This reflects the poor usability of this dataset.
We will try to add yet another feature. This is time the corners, also an important measurement of domination in a football match. After merging all corners data that were given to us we can see that there are some values missing.
corners_data = pd.read_csv("../dataset/corner_detail.csv")
corners = corners_data[['match_id', 'team']]
total_corners = corners["team"].value_counts()
total_matches = corners.drop_duplicates(['match_id', 'team'])["team"].value_counts()
for index, n_corners in total_shots.iteritems():
n_matches = total_matches[index]
avg_corners = n_corners / n_matches
teams_stats.loc[teams_stats['team_api_id'] == index, 'avg_corners'] = avg_corners
teams_stats.describe()As we can see, there are a lot of Nan values on the avg_corners column. This represents teams that did not have corners data on this dataset. Instead of removing thoose rows, and give less input to our models we need again to do mean imputation and deal with these values.
teams_stats['avg_corners'].hist();We can see that most avg_corners values fall within the 8.5 - 12 range, so let's fill in these entries with the average measured avg_corners
corners_avg_team_avg = teams_stats['avg_corners'].mean()
# mean imputation
teams_stats.loc[(teams_stats['avg_corners'].isnull()), 'avg_corners'] = corners_avg_team_avg
# showing new values
teams_stats.describe()Having done the mean imputation for team_attributes we can see that there are no longer missing values for the avg_corners.
teams_stats.loc[(teams_stats['avg_corners'].isnull())]The final feature to be added is the crosses data. Normally the more dominant team has more crosses because it creates more opportunity of goals during a match. After merging all the data we need to watch for missing rows on the new added column.
crosses_data = pd.read_csv("../dataset/cross_detail.csv")
crosses = crosses_data[['match_id', 'team']]
total_crosses = crosses["team"].value_counts()
total_matches = crosses.drop_duplicates(['match_id', 'team'])["team"].value_counts()
for index, n_crosses in total_crosses.iteritems():
n_matches = total_matches[index]
avg_crosses = n_crosses / n_matches
teams_stats.loc[teams_stats['team_api_id'] == index, 'avg_crosses'] = avg_crosses
teams_stats.describe()As we can see, there are a lot of Nan values on the avg_crosses column. This represents teams that did not have crosses data on this dataset. Instead of removing thoose rows, and give less input to our models we need again to do mean imputation and deal with these values
teams_stats['avg_crosses'].hist();We can see that most avg_crosses values fall within the 12.5 - 17.5 range, so let's fill in these entries with the average measured avg_corners
crosses_avg_team_avg = teams_stats['avg_crosses'].mean()
# mean imputation
teams_stats.loc[(teams_stats['avg_crosses'].isnull()), 'avg_crosses'] = crosses_avg_team_avg
# showing new values
teams_stats.describe()Having done the mean imputation for team_attributes we can see that there are no longer missing values for the avg_crosses.
teams_stats.loc[(teams_stats['avg_crosses'].isnull())]We will now gather the fifa data regarding the overrall rating of the teams. This will create some columns that will include the overall ratings of the players that belong to a team. This way we can more easily compare the value of each team.
def get_fifa_stats(match, player_stats):
''' Aggregates fifa stats for a given match. '''
#Define variables
match_id = match.match_api_id
date = match['date']
players = ['home_player_1', 'home_player_2', 'home_player_3', "home_player_4", "home_player_5",
"home_player_6", "home_player_7", "home_player_8", "home_player_9", "home_player_10",
"home_player_11", "away_player_1", "away_player_2", "away_player_3", "away_player_4",
"away_player_5", "away_player_6", "away_player_7", "away_player_8", "away_player_9",
"away_player_10", "away_player_11"]
player_stats_new = pd.DataFrame()
names = []
#Loop through all players
for player in players:
#Get player ID
player_id = match[player]
#Get player stats
stats = player_stats[player_stats.player_api_id == player_id]
#Identify current stats
current_stats = stats[stats.date < date].sort_values(by = 'date', ascending = False)[:1]
if np.isnan(player_id) == True:
overall_rating = pd.Series(0)
else:
current_stats.reset_index(inplace = True, drop = True)
overall_rating = pd.Series(current_stats.loc[0, "overall_rating"])
#Rename stat
name = "{}_overall_rating".format(player)
names.append(name)
#Aggregate stats
player_stats_new = pd.concat([player_stats_new, overall_rating], axis = 1)
player_stats_new.columns = names
player_stats_new['match_api_id'] = match_id
player_stats_new.reset_index(inplace = True, drop = True)
#Return player stats
return player_stats_new.iloc[0]
def get_fifa_data(matches, player_stats, path = None, data_exists = False):
''' Gets fifa data for all matches. '''
#Check if fifa data already exists
if data_exists == True:
fifa_data = pd.read_pickle(path)
else:
print("Collecting fifa data for each match...")
start = time()
#Apply get_fifa_stats for each match
fifa_data = matches.apply(lambda x :get_fifa_stats(x, player_stats), axis = 1)
end = time()
print("Fifa data collected in {:.1f} minutes".format((end - start)/60))
#Return fifa_data
return fifa_datafifa_data = get_fifa_data(viable_matches, player_attributes, None, data_exists = False)
fifa_data.describe()In this instance we need to join all features, select the input we will pass to our models and drop the column regarding the outcome label. To improve the overall measures of the supervised learning models we need to normalize our features before training our models.
# Creates features and labels based on the provided data
viables = get_features(viable_matches, teams_stats, fifa_data, 10, False)
inputs = viables.drop('match_api_id', axis=1)
outcomes = inputs.loc[:, 'outcome']
# all features except outcomes
features = inputs.drop('outcome', axis=1)
features.iloc[:,:] = Normalizer(norm='l1').fit_transform(features)
features.head()We used K-Fold Cross validation. The idea is that we split the dataset, after processing it, in k bins of equal size to better estimate the skill of a model on unseen data. That is, to use a limited sample in order to estimate how the model is expected to perform in general when used to make predictions on data not used during the training of the model. It results in a less biased estimate of the model skill in comparision to the typical train_test_split.
def train_predict(clf, data, outcomes):
y_predict = train_model(clf, data, outcomes)
predict_metrics(outcomes, y_predict)
def train_predict_nn(clf, data, outcomes):
le = LabelEncoder()
y_outcomes = le.fit_transform(outcomes)
y_outcomes = np_utils.to_categorical(y_outcomes)
y_predict = train_model_nn(clf, data, y_outcomes)
y_predict_reverse = [np.argmax(y, axis=None, out=None) for y in y_predict]
y_predict_decoded = le.inverse_transform(y_predict_reverse)
predict_metrics(outcomes, y_predict_decoded)
def train_model(clf, data, labels):
kf = KFold(n_splits=5)
predictions = []
for train, test in kf.split(data):
X_train, X_test = data[data.index.isin(train)], data[data.index.isin(test)]
y_train, y_test = labels[data.index.isin(train)], labels[data.index.isin(test)]
clf.fit(X_train, y_train)
predictions.append(clf.predict(X_test))
y_predict = predictions[0]
y_predict = np.append(y_predict, predictions[1], axis=0)
y_predict = np.append(y_predict, predictions[2], axis=0)
y_predict = np.append(y_predict, predictions[3], axis=0)
y_predict = np.append(y_predict, predictions[4], axis=0)
return y_predict
def train_model_nn(clf, data, labels):
kf = KFold(n_splits=5, shuffle=False)
predictions = []
for train, test in kf.split(data):
X_train, X_test = data[data.index.isin(train)], data[data.index.isin(test)]
y_train, y_test = labels[data.index.isin(train)], labels[data.index.isin(test)]
clf.fit(X_train, y_train, epochs=20, verbose=0)
predictions.append(clf.predict(X_test))
y_predict = predictions[0]
y_predict = np.append(y_predict, predictions[1], axis=0)
y_predict = np.append(y_predict, predictions[2], axis=0)
y_predict = np.append(y_predict, predictions[3], axis=0)
y_predict = np.append(y_predict, predictions[4], axis=0)
return y_predict
def predict_metrics(y_test, y_predict):
ls = ['Win', 'Draw', 'Defeat']
from sklearn import metrics
cm = metrics.confusion_matrix(y_test, y_predict, ls)
disp = metrics.ConfusionMatrixDisplay(confusion_matrix=cm, display_labels=ls)
disp.plot(include_values=True, values_format='d')
plt.show()
print(metrics.classification_report(y_test, y_predict, target_names=ls))
print("\n\nAccuracy: ", metrics.accuracy_score(y_test, y_predict))
print("Recall: ", metrics.recall_score(y_test, y_predict, average='macro'))
print("Precision: ", metrics.precision_score(y_test, y_predict, average='macro'))
print("F1 Score: ", metrics.f1_score(y_test, y_predict, average='macro'))-
The accuracy measure is great for balanced classes, but because this is not the case we can't do much with it.
-
Precision-Recall is a useful measure of success of prediction when the classes are very imbalanced.
-
Precision is a measure of the ability of a classification model to identify only the relevant data points, ie, answers the question: what portion of predicted Positives is truly Positive?
-
Recall is a measure of the ability of a model to find all the relevant cases within a dataset, ie, answers the question what portion of actual Positives is correctly classified?
-
F1-Score is a combination of both recall and precision. Because precision and recall are often in tension, i.e, improving one will lead to a reduction in the other, this way the f1-score is a great measure also.
clf = KNeighborsClassifier(n_neighbors=100)
train_predict(clf, features, outcomes)clf = DecisionTreeClassifier(random_state=0, criterion='entropy', splitter='random', max_depth=5)
train_predict(clf, features, outcomes)clf = SVC(coef0=5, kernel='poly')
train_predict(clf, features, outcomes)clf = GaussianNB(var_smoothing=1.1)
train_predict(clf, features, outcomes)clf = XGBClassifier(max_depth=20)
train_predict(clf, features, outcomes)visible = Input(shape=(features.shape[1],))
hidden = Dense(500, activation='relu')(visible)
output = Dense(3, activation='softmax')(hidden)
clf = Model(inputs=visible, outputs=output)
print(clf.summary())
from keras import metrics
from keras import losses
from keras import optimizers
clf.compile(optimizer=optimizers.Adam(),
loss=losses.CategoricalCrossentropy(),
metrics=[metrics.Precision(), metrics.Recall()])
train_predict_nn(clf, features, outcomes)visible = Input(shape=(features.shape[1],))
hidden1 = Dense(500, activation='relu')(visible)
hidden2 = Dense(100, activation='relu')(hidden1)
hidden3 = Dense(50, activation='relu')(hidden2)
hidden4 = Dense(20, activation='relu')(hidden3)
output = Dense(3, activation='softmax')(hidden4)
clf = Model(inputs=visible, outputs=output)
print(clf.summary())
from keras import metrics
from keras import losses
from keras import optimizers
clf.compile(optimizer=optimizers.Adam(),
loss=losses.CategoricalCrossentropy(),
metrics=[metrics.Precision(), metrics.Recall()])
train_predict_nn(clf, features, outcomes)Regarding data analysis we learn so many things we did not knew before. Regarding data analysys and processment of data, we learned the importance of usability of the dataset and in case it is not perfect we bust fixed it. After looking at our dataset we noticed some inconsistences and fixes by either removing some rows and mean imputation to allow the models to have multiple features. Before fitting the models, we noticed also, the importance of splitting in a good manner the data or train and test and used K-Fold Cross validation. Finally, the analysis of the models is very important... We cannot look only for the accuracy measure because many times it's misleading and to counter that, we must focus on other metrics to evaluate our models.
To evaluate the different models we need to choose a metric for comparison. The accuracy is only useful when we are dealing with a balanced dataset, which is not the case. Because of that, we need to consider only the other 3 possible metric, recall, precison or f-measure.
Since a predicton is associated with a cost in our case (given that to predict a match we have to spend money to bet on it), the most valuable measure is the precision. Then, our objective is to try to get the maximum percentage of true positives that are correctly classified by our models.
In other cases, such as for medical applications, the objective of a model is to maximize the recall. The f1-score is also an important measure to evaluate both the recall and the precision, when the 2 have the same importance.
Considering this, we think that both Naives Bayes and KNN were the most effective. Both of them got the most precision alongside with Gradient Boosting and SVC. The test were done thoroughly and exhaustive, with shuffling the data and measuring more than once obviously. This way, by running once the results may vary but not considerably.
All in all, it was a great experience and very valuable. We noticed the interest of the professors to shift the lecture to do a more pratical work. In that way we can learn much more by ourselves, learn with our mistakes, become very interested in this topic and pursue it in future years.
