Asymmetric Range Calibration
The ARC algorithm calibrates the range spaned by an ensable predictions based on past observations. The algorithm uses past predictions and observations and returns calibrated ranges which can be used to construct the probability function.
These papers describe and use the algorithm:
- Strobach, E., and G. Bel., 2017. “Improved reliability and accuracy of CMIP5 global mean surface temperature projections”. arXiv, arXiv:1904.06773.
- Strobach, E., and G. Bel., 2017. “Qunatifying the uncertainties in an ensemble of decadal climate predictions”. J. Geophys. Res., 122, doi:10.1002/2017JD027249.